Fresh off Thanksgiving matchups, the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will square off on Thursday Night Football. Because both teams have gotten the usual amount of rest, traditional Thursday night trends are unlikely to hold for this game. Instead, bettors should tail these Bills-Patriots picks and predictions — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
NFL Odds: Bills-Patriots Odds
Allen Struggling Under Pressure
The Buffalo Bills let the Detroit Lions keep things closer than they should’ve. They’ll now face an underrated New England Patriots team in Foxborough. Although Josh Allen his managed to win his last two trips to Gillette Stadium, he won’t have the benefit of his starting left tackle, Dion Dawkins, on Thursday. Dawkins went down with an ankle injury against Detroit and was replaced by backup David Quessenberry.
Regardless, the Bills still deserve to enter Thursday’s matchup as a favorite — they lead the NFL in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). That said, Allen and the offense haven’t been perfect. The unit ranks sixth in offensive DVOA and second in yards per play (6.3). Buffalo ranks a solid third in expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.22) but a lowly 26th in EPA per rush (-0.1).
Thursday Night Football "Let Connor Cook" Super Boost @FDSportsbook
?Josh Allen 40+ rush yards
?Rhamondre Stevenson 60+ rush yards
?Isaiah McKenzie 25+ receiving yards#PMSLive pic.twitter.com/cRQGCsSecC— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) December 1, 2022
The Bills have struggled with turnovers. They rank 30th in giveaways per game (1.7), and Allen’s 11 interceptions are tied with Davis Mills for the most in the NFL. Worse, Allen leads the NFL in interceptable passes (27). Allen has struggled under pressure this year and has completed only 29.5% of pressured throws, which ranks a lowly 31st. Unless Allen can take some major strides against aggressive pass rushes, the Bills will remain vulnerable to teams that generate pressure.
Buffalo’s defense has remained exceptional in the face of numerous injuries. The Bills rank third in defensive DVOA and ninth in yards allowed per play (5.2). Their defense ranks 11th in EPA per dropback (0.03) and seventh in EPA per rush (-0.11). Last week’s loss of pass rusher Von Miller will hurt, but Buffalo will get defensive ends A.J. Epenesa and Greg Rousseau back in time for Thursday. Although Miller owns the best PFF grade of the bunch (85.8), Rousseau (83.1) isn’t far behind. Rousseau has racked up six sacks this year.
New England Not Doing Much on Offense
The New England Patriots did their best to bring down the fraudulent Minnesota Vikings, but a kick return touchdown and a late flag for running into the punter did them in. They now sit at 6-5 and rank last in the AFC East. The Patriots must turn things around quickly to stay in the playoff hunt.
The Patriots remain a solid team to target despite their unremarkable record. They rank 11th in total DVOA behind their second-ranked defense. New England’s defense leads the NFL in EPA per dropback (-0.12) and ranks second in pressure percentage (28.2%). The rushing defense ranks sixth in EPA per play (-0.12) as well. With the Patriots ranked a solid seventh in yards allowed per play (5), Allen will have his work cut out for him.
That said, the Patriots must make some progress on offense. Mac Jones looked solid against the Vikings, but New England just couldn’t score enough points to earn the win. The Patriots rank a lowly 25th in offensive DVOA and 17th in yards per play (5.4). The passing offense has fared especially poorly, as the Patriots rank only 25th in EPA per dropback (-0.03). The rushing offense ranks a better 21st in the metric (-0.09) but is still net less efficient at scoring than the passing offense.
Final Bills-Patriots Prediction & Pick
The Buffalo Bills opened as 5.5-point favorites for Thursday’s contest, but sharps have since bid that number down all the way to 4. The Patriots have drawn 56% of the cash on only 32% of the tickets. The spread still has value at that price but much less than what it had earlier in the week.
The far better bet for Thursday’s contest remains on the board at only two books: BetMGM and DraftKings. Allen will have to run for his life against New England’s pass rush, and bettors should expect plenty of scrambles. Allen had to scramble a season-high seven times last week against Detroit. He gained 78 yards on those seven plays plus another three rushing attempts. Allen is now averaging 51 rushing yards per game on the season.
For all its success rushing the passer, New England’s defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Sam Ehlinger racked up 39 yards on five carries two weeks ago. Justin Fields totaled 82 rushing yards on 14 attempts back in late October, and Lamar Jackson ran for 107 yards on 11 attempts in late September. The Patriots have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this year, and Allen has gone for at least 44 rushing yards against them in their last two meetings.
Other sportsbooks have already picked up on the sharpness of this player prop. FanDuel has raised this number by a full two yards. Caesars has stacked the juice on the over by pricing it all the way up at -151. This line won’t remain on the market forever, so bettors should head to BetMGM or DraftKings before the value gets bid up.
Final Bills-Patriots Prediction: Josh Allen Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110 for 1.1 Units) at BetMGM
Bills-Patriots OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper’s industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props — and even quarter- or half-based derivatives. Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model’s predictions and best bets for each game. For the Bills-Patriots Thursday Night Football matchup, the model has identified a Buffalo running back as a player to target at his current price.
Betting the over on James Cook‘s total rushing yards yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market.
