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Broncos-Bears Pick & Prediction: Tail This Bet for Sunday (Oct. 1)

The Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos, two 0-3 teams, will square off in one of Week 5’s most disgusting matchups. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Broncos-Bears betting odds from London as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 4 bet!

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Broncos-Bears Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 4

Broncos-Bears Betting Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Broncos: -158 | Bears: +134
Broncos -3.5: -104 | Bears +3.5: -118
Over 46.5: -110 | Under 46.5: -110

Broncos-Bears Pick & Prediction

Degenerates of the world, rejoice! In true sicko fashion, I’m getting some action in this awful battle between two 0-3 teams. The Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos are both coming off devastating blowout losses. If there is any morale left in these locker rooms, it’s sure to dissipate soon. With Chicago’s bad offense taking on a terrible Denver defense, I want exposure to the Bears’ team total, especially with it set at just 20.5. The Broncos coughed up 17 to the Raiders, 35 to the Commanders and 70 to the Dolphins, so this isn’t a big ask for Justin Fields and company.

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Fields is a deeply flawed quarterback, just as this is a deeply flawed offensive scheme, but there are at least two silver linings to discuss: the run game and the offensive line. Chicago ranks a solid 14th in expected points added (EPA) per rush attempt, assisted heavily by an offensive line that ranks second in run-block win rate (76%). The line also ranks sixth in pass-block win rate (64%). Chicago draws a Denver defense that ranks a dreadful 25th in run-stop win rate (29%) and 32nd in pass-rush win rate (29%). The Broncos also rank dead last in EPA allowed per both rush and dropback.

The Fields-led Bears are averaging only 15.7 points per game this year, and they averaged only 19.2 per game last year, but even a broken clock is right twice per day. Fields’ Bears recorded 21 or more points seven times last year, doing so in 46.7% of his starts. They’re just yet to do so this season. Of the teams the Bears have played so far this year — the Packers, Buccaneers and Chiefs — two had lined up against Fields at least once before. Fortunately for them, neither the Broncos nor defensive coordinator Vance Joseph have faced Fields before. That bodes well for their offense.

The already-bad Denver defense is also dealing with some injury issues that should lead Chicago’s team total to close at 21.5 or higher. Inside linebacker Josey Jewell suffered a groin injury against Miami and could not return. Pass rusher Frank Clark and safety Justin Simmons both missed Week 3 with injuries after failing to practice all week as well. They are both questionable at best for Week 4’s game against Chicago. Justin Fields and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy are trending in the wrong direction, but they’ll get to show out at least once more for the Chicago faithful.

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I recommended buying the over for Chicago’s team total in the early week column when it was trading at 20.5 for -120 (54.6%), but it’s now trading at 21.5 across the market. The best price you’ll find for it is the -102 (50.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. That isn’t the worst deal, but it’s not one I’m interested in adding to my card with some exposure already on the 20.5. If you’re fiending for action on Week 5’s worst matchup, check out my player prop for it, or limit your exposure to Chicago’s team total to a half unit.

Broncos-Bears NFL Week 4 Pick: Chicago Over 21.5 -102 at DraftKings

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Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 4 now!

Isaiah Sirois


Isaiah Sirois

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