The 1-2 Atlanta Falcons will face off with the 2-1 Cleveland Browns in Atlanta after earning their first win of the year. The Falcons took down the Seahawks in Seattle behind a 153-yards showing from running back Cordarrelle Patterson. The Browns are coming off a win of their own, and they’ll benefit from a few extra days of rest since they last played on Thursday. The sportsbooks currently predict the Browns will edge the Falcons on Sunday, albeit by only a TK-point margin.
That said, it hasn’t been all good news for the Browns lately. Star edge rusher Myles Garrett injured his shoulder and biceps in a scary car crash on Tuesday, and he is questionable. Fellow edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney hasn’t practiced all week and is also questionable. Garrett and Clowney are responsible for 4.5 of Cleveland’s seven sacks and four of their 13 tackles for loss, so losing either one would seriously hurt in the trenches.
Browns vs. Falcons Week 4 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Browns vs. Falcons Betting Odds
Browns Look Good Almost Everywhere
Jacoby Brissett has played well through three weeks. He has completed 66.3% of his passes for four touchdowns and 5.88 net yards per attempt (NY/A), putting him on pace for a career season in all three metrics. Brissett has also taken only four sacks and thrown only one interception. Brissett ranks eighth in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) among all quarterbacks with at least 45 passing attempts. Lead wide receiver Amari Cooper ranks eighth in the metric among receivers with at least 12 targets.
That said, Brissett benefits from an elite Cleveland offensive line and rushing attack. Brissett's protectors rank sixth in adjusted sack rate and 12th in adjusted line yards. Running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rank second and 18th in DYAR, respectively, among the 38 running backs with at least 24 carries. The ground-and-pound attack has helped Cleveland lead the NFL in average time of possession (35:36) by a full minute. In sum, Cleveland's offense ranks an impressive third in offensive defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). The Browns as a whole rank seventh.
However, Cleveland's defense has some glaring holes. The unit ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA. They rank 18th in yards allowed per play (5.6) and 16th in third-down conversion rate allowed (37.1%). But Cleveland's biggest issue has been allowing big plays to opposing wide receivers --the Browns have given up 15.1 yards per catch to opposing wideouts. George Pickens nabbed a big 36-yard catch last week. Corey Davis caught a 66-yard touchdown bomb in Week 2, and Garrett Wilson caught a 31-yard pass as well. Robbie Anderson also caught a 75-yard touchdown in Week 1. Star cornerback Denzel Ward has routinely gotten toasted this year and owns a PFF grade of 31.5, while slot cornerback Greg Newsome II has also looked beatable and owns a PFF grade of 61.3. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney have been able to compensate for the secondary's struggles by pressuring opposing quarterbacks, but not having either of them would leave a lot more on the plate of Cleveland's cornerbacks.
Falcons Outperforming Low Expectations
Despite their 1-2 record, the Atlanta Falcons look solid. They almost beat the Saints in Week 1, and they were a few plays away from a comeback win over the Rams in Week 2. After finally breaking through against the Seahawks last week, the Falcons are poised to beat their preseason expectations. They rank 14th in total DVOA thus far.
The Falcons boast an extremely efficient rushing offense and a sneakily solid passing attack. Cordarrelle Patterson leads all running backs in DYAR, and the offensive line ranks first in adjusted line yards. Patterson is averaging an exceptional 3.8 yards before contact per attempt and another 2.3 yards after contact. However, he is questionable with a knee injury after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Atlanta's offensive line ranked seventh in PFF's run-blocking stats last year, so this jump hasn't just come out of nowhere. The passing game hasn't been as great, but it's been good. Quarterback Marcus Mariota contributes plenty on the ground and has completed 63.3% of his passes for only three touchdowns but 6.98 NY/A. Wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts rank 12th and eighth in DYAR at their respective positions.
Atlanta's defense leaves much to be desired. The unit ranks 27th in defensive DVOA. The Falcons rank 20th in yards allowed per rush (4.8) and 22nd in yards allowed per pass (7.1). Star boundary cornerback A.J. Terrell has regressed somewhat, as has veteran Casey Hayward. Nickel cornerback Mike Ford leads the unit with an elite PFF grade of 79.7, but both Terrell and Hayward scored below 62. The defensive front ranks a passable 19th in adjusted sack rate but a putrid 27th in adjusted line yards, which could become an issue against Cleveland's punishing ground game.
Browns vs. Falcons Prediction
With Cleveland likely to feature a run-heavy game plan designed to control the clock, Atlanta will have to move fast. Wide receivers Olamide Zaccheaus and Drake London should contribute with a handful of splash plays against struggling cornerbacks. London has gone for at least 54 yards in all three of his starts, yet FanDuel has posted his total at just 52.5. Most other books have it at 55.5. While cornerback Denzel Ward should shadow London, as Ward's 63.2% shadow rate indicates, getting the off-market number before FanDuel adjusts is sharp.
Bettors should also back Zaccheaus, especially since he spends 42.6% of his snaps in the slot. That means a matchup against the struggling Greg Newsome II. Zaccheaus has caught at least two passes every game this year, and he turned those opportunities into more yards than this total in two of his three appearances. With Cordarrelle Patterson possibly sidelined, backing the Over for two Atlanta wideouts should yield a profitable return.
Browns vs. Falcons Prediction: Drake London Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel
Browns vs. Falcons Prediction: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel
Browns vs. Falcons OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 4 matchup between the Browns and Falcons, the model has identified Cleveland's quarterback as a player to buy current price.
Betting the over on Jacoby Brissett's rushing prop yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to Caesars for the best price on the market!
