The Houston Texans host the Cleveland Browns in a game that features Deshaun Watson‘s return to play. As of Friday evening, 79% of the tickets and 81% of the betting handle were on the Browns. One strategy in this game is to look for value in prop bets at the best odds. Let’s dive in to make the sharpest Browns-Texans prediction and pick.
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NFL Odds: Browns-Texans Odds
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Browns Not Afraid to Mix Things Up
The Browns (4-7) get the luxury of having two high-level running backs with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. While all the attention will be on Watson in his return against his former team, Cleveland will likely stick to its run-heavy game script as it eases its quarterback into the offense.
Going against a tanking team like the Texans, this week will be a good opportunity to utilize both Chubb and Hunt with the ground game likely in full effect. Cleveland should be up late in the game, which is a fair assumption based on Houston’s recent play. That means it may elect to utilize Hunt more to keep Chubb fresh for Week 14.
Hunt has been a great weapon on the ground and through the air when given the opportunity. He put up 54 rushing and receiving yards against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11, 72 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8, and 57 against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5.
Hunt’s prop for rushing plus receiving sits at 32.5, which is too low considering Cleveland will likely continue to run the ball late when it has a lead. Hunt has gone over that total in all three of his career games against the Texans, including last year’s game when he served in the same backup role to Chubb.
Houston Defense Can’t Stop the Run
The Texans (1-9-1) have a big problem defensively and cannot stop opposing running backs. They rank last in the NFL in yards rushing allowed per game entering this week.
Their poor defensive play was predictable before the season started due to their weak personnel. Pro Football Focus ranked Houston’s defensive line 30th in the NFL and linebackers 31st going into this season.
This defense has been specifically susceptible to pass-catching running backs. It allowed 103-plus yards rushing/receiving to Austin Ekeler in Week 4, Travis Etienne in Week 5, Saquon Barkley in Week 10 and Antonio Gibson in Week 11. That’s a litany of dual-threat backs who have taken the Texans defense to task, and that is omitting all the run-heavy backs who have killed them exclusively on the ground.
The Houston run defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed, while running backs with the ability to catch out of the backfield have feasted. Based on the personnel, there shouldn’t be much optimism in the Texans to turn it around.
Final Browns-Texans Prediction & Pick
Houston has gotten killed by running backs all season, and that should not change in this matchup. Hunt has the ability to get over this total on one play, let alone a full game. Another benefit for this Browns-Texans prop bet is that the Texans are so bad the Browns may get a big enough lead where the main pieces, such as Chubb, will not even play in the fourth quarter, which would almost guarantee that Hunt gets over the total. Nonetheless, he will have a good shot at doing so regardless of the score. The best pick is to back Kareem Hunt to contribute to a big running day for Cleveland.
Final Browns-Texans Pick: Kareem Hunt Over 32.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
