With Week 8 in the books, the NFL’s trade deadline is fast approaching. Teams must complete their deals by tomorrow, and late moves might sway the Week 9 NFL betting odds. It’s risky to base a wager entirely on trade speculation, but bettors should still factor possible trades when placing their early bets. You can start looking for a positive return by tailing these early Week 9 NFL predictions and picks.
Sharp bettors often bet early. Identifying games where future line movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value (CLV) relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover a 3.5-point spread, if it moves in that direction. Bettors can secure more value now than they’ll get right before kickoff by getting their action down on the Week 9 NFL betting markets early.
Early NFL Week 9 Predictions & Betting Picks
Bears-Dolphins: Short a Tanking Chicago Team
The Chicago Bears answered all questions about whether they intend to tank this season when they shipped off Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith to contending teams. While Chicago’s defense still features some impressive players, the Bears have their eyes fixed on future seasons. The Bears could still ship more assets before the trade deadline on Nov. 1.
Even if the Bears don’t make another move, the Dolphins are the better team. They significantly outrank the Bears in expected points added (EPA) per play. The Dolphins rank third in yards per play (6.2) while the Bears rank 22nd (5.3). Chicago’s defense ranks 21st in yards allowed per play (5.7), slightly better than 26th-ranked Miami (5.9), but the Bears just gave up 7.8 yards per game to the Cowboys and will only fare worse without Quinn and Smith.
The books have correctly listed Miami as the favorite, but they are only 4.5-point favorites as of Monday for the Week 9 matchup. Look for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to dominate the Bears in Chicago — Miami is 4-1 against the spread when their star quarterback stays healthy.
Bears-Dolphins Prediction: Dolphins -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Seahawks-Cardinals Prediction: Seattle a Sharp Road Dog
Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks have been one of the biggest surprises of the year. Seattle opened as a field-goal favorite and at +130 on the moneyline, but those numbers have quickly been bid down. Fortunately, bettors can still find value on Seattle until the line dips below +105.
The Seahawks are clearly the better team, and home-field advantage shouldn’t matter much here. The Cardinals are just 10-17-1 at home under Kliff Kingsbury. They are even 7-9 as a home favorite, the fourth-worst such record in the NFL through that span. Seattle’s offense ranks sixth in yards per play (6) while Arizona’s ranks just 30th (4.9). Seattle’s defense, which started the year poorly, has improved to 18th in yards allowed per play (5.7), while Arizona’s unit now ranks 25th (5.8).
The injury report will likely favor Seattle as well. Arizona’s offensive line remains badly tattered, with the entire starting left half of the unit — D.J. Humpries, Max Garcia and Rodney Hudson — logging a combined one limited practice session between them last week. With Seattle’s defense on an upward trend, look for the Seahawks to snag an upset win on the road.
Seahawks-Cardinals Prediction: Seahawks Moneyline (+110) at DraftKings
Bills-Jets Prediction: Buy Low on New York After Home Loss
After an impressive 5-2 start, the New York Jets took a step backward by losing to the New England Patriots at home last Sunday. Quarterback Zach Wilson made some impressive throws early but finished the game with a completion percentage of only 48.8%. Still, he threw for a career-high 355 yards and two scores — and he did so despite missing wide receiver Corey Davis.
The Jets have since been listed as 13.5-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. But Buffalo just failed to cover a double-digit spread against the Green Bay Packers, and Josh Allen didn’t look great against Green Bay’s aggressive pass rush. He threw two interceptions, completed only 52% of his passes and gained only 216 net yards. He’ll face another aggressive pass rush in East Rutherford next week, as the Jets rank 11th in pressure percentage (22.3%).
The Bills also suffered a bit injury late against Green Bay. Starting safety Jordan Poyer went down with an injury late. He may have to join fellow safety Micah Hyde on the sidelines next week. Missing both safeties would force the Bills to trust Jaquan Johnson, who owns a PFF grade of just 49.4, with a considerable workload. Buffalo’s defense still ranks sixth in yards allowed per play (5), but they rank just 24th through the last three weeks (5.9). In contrast, the Jets rank first through that span (4.1) and third on the year (4.7).
Bills-Jets Prediction: Jet +13.5 (-115) at FanDuel
