Just as everyone expected, the New York Giants enter their Week 11 matchup with the Detroit Lions at 7-2. They rank second in the NFC East and are just one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles. In contrast, the Detroit Lions sit at 3-6 and are a lowly third in the NFC North. A quick look at the NFL odds reveals that the Giants are field-goal home favorites for the matchup. Bettors looking for a positive return from Sunday’s contest should tail these Lions-Giants prediction and picks — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
NFL Odds: Lions-Giants Odds
Lions Don't Play Defense
The Detroit Lions just earned a solid win over the Chicago Bears, but they needed a missed extra point to avoid overtime. They gave up a whopping 147 rushing yards to Justin Fields -- including a 67-yard touchdown -- and 408 total yards. Although Detroit's defense hasn't played well, their offense has played well enough to give them three wins. The Lions rank 20th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) but slot in well below the league average in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Detroit's offense has looked incredible at points. The Lions rank a solid 13th in offensive DVOA but a much more impressive fifth in yards per play (5.9). Their rushing offense ranks 11th in both yards per attempt (4.8) and yards per game (129.8). The offensive line accounts for much of their success on the ground -- the unit ranks fourth in adjusted line yards and eighth in run-block win rate.
Even Jared Goff and the passing offense have fared well. Goff ranks sixth among the 35 quarterbacks with at least 125 pass attempts in net yards per attempt (NY/A) with 6.86. That said, he ranks a lowly 23rd in interception frequency (2.3%) and 21st in completion percentage (63.8%). Goff has only completed 24% of his throws under pressure, which ranks 37th, but has only faced pressure on 18.7% of his dropbacks. Further, Goff doesn't have many weapons in the passing game -- DJ Chark, Jameson Williams, Trinity Benson and Quintez Cephus are all out, and tight end T.J. Hockenson is now a Viking. Goff will have to lean on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds.
Detroit's defense has not played well this year. The unit just lacks the personnel necessary to compete at a high level. The Lions rank 26th in defensive DVOA, 32nd in yards allowed per play (6.5) and 32nd in EPA per play. The defensive front has allowed 5.3 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 30th, and 160.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks 31st. The passing defense has also allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 32nd.
Giants Leaning on Barkley
Brian Daboll has, to some extent, avenged ousted Giants general manager Dave Gettleman. It turns out that pairing Daniel Jones with Saquon Barkley could lead the Giants to a winning season -- albeit no thanks to some of his other additions, like Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. But despite their 7-2 record, the Giants only rank 19th in total DVOA, but they are well above the league average in EPA per play.
The Giants have leaned on a strong rushing attack. They rank only 25th in yards per play (5.1) but rank 10th in yards per rush attempt (4.8) and third in rushing yards per game (164.8). They run the ball at the fourth-highest rate (53.6%). Barkley leads the NFL in scrimmage yards per game (125.3) and Jones ranks 103rd (43). The two account for 48.7% of the team's total yards from scrimmage.
New York's playmakers have had to overcome a struggling offensive line. The Giants' blockers rank 23rd in adjusted line yards and 24th in run-block win rate. Left tackle Andrew Thomas has been the lone bright spot in the trenches and owns an elite PFF grade of 89.6. No other starter owns a grade above 62. Two starters, left guard Joshua Ezeudu and right tackle Evan Neal, own grades below 50.
New York's defense hasn't played as well as some may think. The unit ranks only 24th in defensive DVOA and is solidly below the league average in EPA per play. New York ranks a lowly 27th in yards allowed per play (5.8). The rushing defense has seriously struggled, as the Giants rank 32nd in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.5) and 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (133.2). The passing defense ranks a much more respectable 15th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.5) and 13th in pressure percentage (23.2%) -- although it also leads the NFL in blitz frequency (39.7%).
Final Lions-Giants Prediction & Pick
Since New York leans on the run and is most beatable on the ground, bettors may expect a slow-paced, low-scoring game. However, Detroit's offense ranks eighth in seconds per play (27.6) and just hung 31 points on the similarly run-oriented Chicago Bears. The Lions have averaged 24.3 points per game this season. The only teams to keep them under this number have boasted top-10 pass rushes, although neither the sixth-ranked Eagles nor the third-ranked Commanders could stifle this offense.
Detroit's team total sits at either 21.5 or 20.5, with the number varying from book to book. Bettors should get under the key number of 21 and buy low on a Detroit offense that, for all its injuries and departures, has still averaged 5.5 yards per play over the last three weeks. Goff may struggle somewhat against a blitz-heavy pass rush, but the Giants just haven't won on enough of their blitzes to fade the Lions here.
Final Lions-Giants Pick: Lions Over 20.5 (-110 for 1.1 Units) at FanDuel
Lions-Giants OddsShopper Model Prediction
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