We’re into the middle of the NFL regular season as Week 9 showcases some of the tightest movement across point spreads to this point of the season. While an undefeated team is still remaining after the Philadelphia Eagles‘ 29-17 Thursday Night Football victory, division races remain closely contested with the public betting reflecting uncertainty in most matchups this week. With key injuries leaving questionable tags lingering the further hesitation makes for a window to act upon certain betting lines before the weekend movement settles in. Some of the matchups we’re looking at include Mac Jones of the New England Patriots against the Indianapolis Colts and the Buffalo Bills against the New York Jets. Let’s dive into the updated NFL odds.
Each week in this article we’ll identify the greatest point spread movements spanning Monday through Friday to factor what caused them to occur and any edges that may be available before additional movement takes place heading into the weekend. Utilizing the FREE tools at OddsShopper we’re able to recognize when the line movements transpired and solidify the best odds available to capitalize upon before the weekend movement is ushered in.
Let’s take a look into the biggest movers of NFL’s Week 9 in spite of the meager point spread shifts developed thus far.
Week 9 NFL Betting Line Movement Today: Expert Betting Picks 11/4
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Game Time: Sunday 11/6, 1:00 pm ET, Gillette Stadium
Opening Line: NE -6.0 (-110)
Current Line: NE -4.5 (-110)
The new look Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) are coming off a devastating last moment loss last Sunday against Washington and hit the road to battle the New England Patriots (4-4) in Gillette Stadium. The point spread opened with New England as -6.5 favorites on an early line two weeks ago, moving to -6 last Sunday after Week 8’s conclusion for both teams. Since Monday the line drifted to -5.5 and remained stagnant until early Thursday where it reduced another full point down to -4.5. Despite 53% of the public bets coming in on the Patriots, the minor movement of 1.5 points this week likely stems from a lack of confidence in the Patriots being able to cover a full touchdown.
Backup quarterback turned starter Sam Ehlinger appeared to be a moderately effective game manager in his first start in Week 8, throwing just 201 yards and no touchdowns yet with no interceptions. Star running back Jonathan Taylor was leaned on for 16 carries last week but has missed practice all this week, setting up a looming questionable tag on the outside looking in for Sunday. Facing a Patriots defense allowing 126 rushing yards per game (22nd NFL) backup Deon Jackson could be in store for a sizeable role on offense should Taylor not suit up. New England looks to have settled their quarterback controversy (for now) yet Mac Jones is likely to be playing behind backup right tackle Isaiah Wynn with Marcus Cannon now in concussion protocol, along with starting center David Andrews. It was Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris who shouldered much of the load on offense last week and will presumably be the case against a Colts defense allowing 120 rushing yards per game (16th NFL), while just allowing 199 passing yards per game (8th).
Colts at Patriots Lean
Seeing as that a majority of the public bets have come in on New England, along with the pending news of Taylor’s status for Sunday, it’s hard to believe this line will drift much further toward the Colts. Depending on the Friday update we receive from the Colts, prepare for the reverse line movement to come into play early. Ehlinger is also potentially playing behind a backup center and left tackle with questionable tags in wait, with Belichick chomping at the bit given his success record against rookie and newcomer quarterbacks. Provided what we’ve seen from New England’s mediocre offensive abilities, either tease the -4.5 down to -3 with moderate increased juice or grab the line where it stands before movement swoops in later today.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Game Time: Sunday 11/6, 1:00 pm ET, MetLife Stadium
Opening Line: BUF -12.5 (-107)
Current Line: BUF -11.0 (-107)
The Buffalo Bills (6-1) continue to roll through their schedule as a divisional matchup with the New York Jets (5-3) at MetLife Stadium awaits. The point spread opened with Buffalo as -12.5 point road favorites, briefly moving up to -13.5 on Monday with a half-point drop on Tuesday (-13), and diminishing over the next two days to the current -11 early Friday. While 61% of the public bets are pouring in on Buffalo, the line movement may stem in part to the slew of questionable tags littered across the Bills’ defensive starters.
Buffalo leads the league with 307.7 passing yards per game and faces a Jets defense allowing just 203.4 passing yards per game (10th NFL) making for an intriguing matchup on paper. It’s the Bills defense in question as Von Miller, Jordan Poyer, and Matt Milano all missed practice Thursday due to injuries, which their absences Sunday would make a noticeable impact let alone they all sit. Given the top-four ranked rush defense of Buffalo allowing 95 rushing yards per game, the Jets’ revamped running game involving James Robinson and Michael Carter could struggle to get going if Buffalo establishes much of an early lead. The Jets receiving game is likely to once again be without Corey Davis, who’s been sidelined at practice all week with a knee injury.
Bills at Jets Lean
The Jets defense has established themselves as a force to be reckoned with and were a defensive penalty away from winning five straight games. Though it’s debatable whether they’ve faced a true test to this point through their winning streak, the Jets certainly haven’t seen one of Buffalo’s caliber all season. With a majority of bets coming in on Buffalo and seeing as this line has been as high as -13.5, grabbing the Bills on the -11 while you can is worth considering. Yet if the news comes of the absence including all the aforementioned Bills’ starters, the Jets could play this one closer than first imagined, especially considering last week’s circumstantial loss at home. In that case wait to see if it climbs back toward Buffalo’s favor and tease the Jets at up to a +15 line (or more, depending on the sportsbook).
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Time: Sunday 11/6, 4:25 pm ET, Raymond James Stadium
Opening Line: LAR +2.5 (-110)
Current Line: LAR +3.0 (-114)
The Los Angeles Rams (3-4) are coming off a crushing 31-14 divisional loss to the 49ers and look to get right against the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) on the road in central Florida. The point spread technically opened at +2.5 last Friday while moving to +1.5 on Sunday prior to Week 8 kickoffs, and quickly shifting to LAR +3 on Monday where it’s since settled. Considering the Buccaneers are incurring 56% of the public bets the line movement is likely in part to the pending injury status of Cooper Kupp that’s been the front of attention for this matchup all week.
A rematch of last season’s NFC Divisional Playoff both the Rams and Bucs have struggled to grasp the form and consistency they each had less than a year ago. Thankfully for Los Angeles, Kupp was back to practice on Thursday, making his situation for Sunday look promising. The Bucs are coming off a 27-22 loss to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football in Week 8 with the Atlanta Falcons since claiming control of the NFC South for the time being. Receiver Russell Gage is looking like he’ll be absent this Sunday as he’s been a non-participant in practice all week. Given Tampa’s top-five ranked 271 passing yards per game on offense, the matchup with the Rams defense makes for an intriguing one after what they endured against San Francisco a week ago.
Rams at Buccaneers Lean
Seeing as the point spread has hardly budged since cresting back to the Bucs’ favor, one can anticipate the injury news of Kupp will potentially start the reverse line movement. Though both teams are very much still in contention within their divisions the recent disarray of Tampa remains a concern, as they’ve lost to some of the league’s bottom feeders of late despite a hard-fought contest with Baltimore. Tease the Rams on the +3 up a few points where possible (up to +10), or simply snag the three points before the Kupp news prompts movement.
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