Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 16 with a matchup between the New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars. That also means it’s our first opportunity of the week to play on No House Advantage. There are two types of contests to play, “Pick ‘Em” and “Vs The House.” Let’s try to help narrow down the field by highlighting some of the best NFL TNF props to target, including the Jets holding Trevor Lawrence to under 262.5 passing yards. Also, check out our NFL Player Props Tool to help you make all of your selections.
NFL TNF Props and Odds for Jets-Jaguars: No House Advantage
Trevor Lawrence Prop: Under 262.5 Passing Yards
Lawrence picked apart the Cowboys last week, throwing for 318 yards and four touchdowns. It marked the third time over the last four games that he has thrown for at least 318 yards and three touchdowns. Prior to the Jaguars’ Week 11 bye, Lawrence only had one game this season with at least 300 passing yards and one game with more than two touchdown passes.
Lawrence playing so well against the Cowboys was impressive because they have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game in the league. The Jets have allowed the fourth-fewest, so he will be looking at another tall order here. Stokastic’s expert NFL Player Props Tool has Lawrence projected to finish with 211.2 passing yards.
Marvin Jones Jr. Prop: Under 32.5 Receiving Yards
The Jaguars have made a concerted effort to get Zay Jones more involved since their bye week. Over four games since, he has caught 27 of 41 targets for 347 yards and four touchdowns. He had two games with at least 100 receiving yards, while his previous high was an 85-yard performance all the way back in Week 3.
The emergence of Zay Jones has left fewer opportunities for Marvin Jones Jr.. He has received a total of 14 targets over the last four games, leaving him to record 22 or fewer receiving yards each time. Combine this difficult matchup with his shrinking role within the Jaguars’ offense and another muted stat line could be upcoming. The NFL Player Props Tool has Jones projected to finish with 25.8 receiving yards.
Michael Carter Prop: Under 29.5 Rushing Yards
When Breece Hall (knee) went down for the season, additional carries opened up for Carter. However, he was never given a leading role and the Jets eventually traded for James Robinson to help provide depth. Surprisingly, Robinson has not been given much work, either. Their lead running back has become Zonovan Knight, who was brought in as an undrafted free agent. Over the last four games, he has turned 59 carries into 253 yards and one touchdown.
With Knight playing well, Carter has become an afterthought within the Jets’ offense. He only was given four carries in Week 15 and he hasn’t had more than eight carries in any of his last four games. During that span, he didn’t surpass 21 rushing yards in a single game. Knight (ankle) is officially listed as questionable, but he is expected to play. That should leave Carter in a limited role.
Elijah Moore Prop: Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
Moore began the season with four straight games with at least 41 receiving yards. However, his role in the Jets’ offense started to shrink, leaving him with a total of one catch from Weeks 5 through 9. A trade never materialized despite his displeasure, which was not a huge surprise since the Jets just selected him in the second round of the 2021 Draft. They weren’t going to just give him away, and the slow start to his career might have deceased his value on the market.
The Jets moving from Zach Wilson to Mike White at quarterback provided a jolt for Moore, who had at least 60 receiving yards in two of three games with him under center. White was unable to play last week because of a rib injury, but Moore still caught four of seven targets for 51 yards from Wilson. With him back to being more involved and the Jaguars allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, Moore could hit the over despite White being out again.
