Welcome to the 15th edition of NFL Confidence Pool Picks. Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 16 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play.
Some early strategies in the NFL confidence pool picks center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any ** denotes an upset.
Week 15 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
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- Kansas City Chiefs (-800) at Houston Texans
It’s Kansas City’s turn this week to lay heavy points against the worst team in the NFL. While it was certainly an uncomfortable sweat for the Cowboys last week, this is just about winning the game. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are simply too good to overlook the Texans.
- Washington Commanders (-210) vs. New York Giants
The New York Giants are a broken team that was permanently disassembled by the Eagles last weekend. Their main issue isn’t just their Quarterback, but primarily protecting him. That’s a bad combination against a Washington team that should put pressure on Daniel Jones every time he drops back. Washington can run the ball better than New York despite not having a Saquon Barkley. Way too many injuries on both sides of the ball to take the Giants.
- Cincinnati Bengals (-190) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are also broken, and nobody on that team is going to put Tom Brady back together again. Their offense continues to sputter as Brady struggles to get to 2 passing TDs, if that, each week. They were humiliated by San Francisco in a game that was over by the half. The Bengals knocked off the Browns en route to their 5th straight win and have the inside path to the AFC North with Baltimore’s injuries at QB. There’s no real letdown for Cincy as they have been able to thrive despite injuries to the WR core.
- Los Angeles Chargers (-150) vs. Tennessee Titans
The Chargers come off a giant prime time victory following a tough road loss to the Raiders. But outside of that L, the Chargers only lost to KC and SF since their bye, beating Atlanta, Arizona, and Miami in the process. The Titans were once on the level of the Chiefs or Niners but have fallen off a cliff. They are probably going to fire at least a coordinator if not head coach at the end of the year. That will start to weigh on a team this late in the season. Teams can withstand a punch or two from Derrick Henry and still beat Tennessee, which makes them incredibly vulnerable against a passing offense like the Chargers.
- Buffalo Bills (-335) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Bills are on a heater of their own, winning their fourth straight after holding off the Jets in a low-scoring affair. Miami is lost right now, losers of two straight and watching their young QB struggle to make basic reads. Much like the Titans run game, withstanding a blow or two from the Miami pass game makes them an easy opponent. Buffalo will certainly stretch the field and test Miami’s secondary. This is a division game and Miami has shown to be able to score on anyone – at times – which is why we drop this heavy favorite to the 12 spot. Buffalo has the better QB in both arm and playmaker, that’s the difference.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-405) at Chicago Bears
The NFL’s best isn’t losing in Chicago, but the Eagles could be in store for their first actual letdown game that results in a loss. That’s just how good, dominant, and lucky this team has been this year – with games against the Cardinals, Jaguars, and Colts that easily could have been losses. Chicago has some major problems protecting their skittish QB as Justin Fields will have to run his way out of trouble just to survive. The Eagles are as good as pressuring the opposing QB as they are on offense, and ultimately the Bears will be too far behind to continue to rely on any of their running backs. Philadelphia could get Dallas Goedert back this week which makes this offense even more unfair.
- Minnesota Vikings (-198) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Vikings are a loss away from watching the Eagles clinch the overall seed, but another disappointment could open the door for losing the division. They face a Colts team led by the “Human Turnover” in Matt Ryan, a defense that can’t afford another injury, and a brewing QB controversy that may see Ryan pulled after the first quarter. It’s a mess that a first-time head coach pulled from the TV studio isn’t going to fix. This is actually a perfect opportunity for Minnesota to get right following that brutal loss to Detroit and re-establish their position atop the NFC North. It is the Vikings so we must honor their glorious ability to embarrass themselves at any point, but we still like them to win this game.
- Dallas Cowboys (-210) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Cowboys aren’t nearly as bad as they looked against the Texans but now face a much tougher opponent in Jacksonville. Jags coach Doug Pederson knows the Dallas Cowboys from his Eagles days and has a couple of people on his staff share the same familiarity with their opponent. The Jags are a live dog here with the points but it’s going to be tough to take them outright in a confidence pool. There will be plenty of people who put Dallas up at the top of this week, but we fade them in that if they do lose, we simply lose less points than most of your pool.
- San Francisco 49ers (-180) at Seattle Seahawks
This is a short week and the Niners are down a major player in Deebo Samuel ahead of Thursday night. They have been able to navigate their offense quite well with Brock Purdy, but now they face an actual HC not just a glorified DC like last week. Pete Carroll will have a couple of schemes lined up to make it tougher for Purdy to rely on the passing game, which should open things for Christian McCaffrey on the ground. The Niners defense is on fire and Geno Smith showed some serious signs of cracking last weekend. We like San Fran to win this game as tight and sloppy as it may be.
- Denver Broncos (-134) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals are falling harder than any other team right now in the NFL. They can’t do anything on the field and just lost Kyler Murray. The Broncos lost Russell Wilson, but at least their defense has kept them in games. They have a full week to prepare without Wilson and can still rely on their defense. What can the Cardinals rely on right now outside of prayer? Kliff Kingsbury looked like it was his first day on the job against the Patriots and most of that wasn’t even his fault. The Cardinals are just too bad all around and lack one main area of strength to be anyone’s bet this week.
- New England Patriots (-105) at Las Vegas Raiders
The last of our favorites this week finds the Patriots carrying momentum into Vegas for the victory. Mainly, their defense. Granted, they decimated a Cardinals team with little to no interest in finishing out the season, the Raiders are ripe with mistakes and don’t do well with pressure. New England is still alive and thirsty to make the postseason after that beat down of Arizona, while the Raiders saw their postseason hopes slip away to Baker Mayfield. No amount of rest can wash out that taste. Las Vegas has talent but can’t seem to stay out of its own way. The Patriots are fine so long as Matt Patricia stays out of everyone’s way – even if they are down a key running back.
- Green Bay Packers (-300) vs. Los Angeles Rams*
Green Bay is a 3-to-1 home favorite against a team coming off it’s biggest win of the year. Sure, letdown is a possibility, but there is also something called momentum. Baker Mayfield had the offense looking as sharp as possible under the circumstances, and if they can protect him against Green Bay, then expect similar throws downfield. The Packers are one of the worst teams in stopping the run, so the Rams get a break in establishing the ground game. Green Bay will want to rely heavily on their ground game, but the Rams are a top-5 rush defense heading into this weekend. If this comes down to Aaron Rodgers winning the game with mistake-free football in the air, then the Rams are live to win this outright. The Packers have won just two of their last nine games – one of those was an emotional homecoming with Mike McCarthy, and the other was against a QB with a worse arm than Mayfield in Justin Fields.
- Carolina Panthers (-135) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers*
Carolina is a great story after winning their second straight game. They got rid of their unqualified coach Matt Rhule and actually started running the football. Their defense continues to make opponents work despite not dominating in one area, but they face a different dynamic at QB this week with the Steelers. Pittsburgh is healthy on defense which makes life incredibly hard for Sam Darnold. It’s especially hard on multiple levels of the passing game. The Steelers lost Kenny Pickett but have a week to prepare with either of their backups, both with better passing arms than the rookie – giving the offense the ability to take a couple of risks. Mike Tomlin isn’t Matt Rhule, his guys are ready and focused to ride out this season – be it an outside shot of the playoffs or not handing Tomlin his first season below .500. Steve Wilks is going to have one of his toughest tests yet – keeping a young and inexperienced team focused after a mini-win streak.
- New Orleans Saints (-200) vs. Atlanta Falcons*
The Falcons announced they are moving to their backup QB during their bye week, so welcome Desmond Ridder to the NFC South. That is most likely the driving force behind the Falcons being a 2-to-1 underdog, despite it being against a division foe. This is a revenge game from earlier in the season and the Falcons have been able to stay in games on defense, despite seeing their offense shut down. But what exactly changes with that offense? They sacrifice a little legs on the ground with some field-stretching ability with Ridder – at least more than Marcus Mariota. Arthur Smith should open up this offense while the Saints have only 16 combined points over their last two weeks. Suddenly, that loss to Tampa looks much worse for Dennis Allen’s crew.
- Cleveland Browns (-150) vs. Baltimore Ravens*
The Ravens have a full week to prepare for a football team without their starting quarterback (s). It’s not going to be easy against the Browns as Deshaun Watson looks more comfortable than he did in his debut. The Browns are still struggling against better football teams, and despite losing Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are better on defense. This is a huge test for Baltimore’s linebacker unit, as Cleveland will continue to push for yards with Nick Chubb first and foremost. The Ravens got healthier in their backfield which should take some pressure off whoever is starting this week. Cleveland can’t stop the run and still struggles to pass, so this will be much closer than advertised.
- Detroit Lions (-105) at New York Jets*
It’s hard to fade the hottest and most popular team in the NFL right now but we dropped this upset to a 1-point play. The Jets defense is incredibly good, and they seem to have a ton of faith in Mike White. Pending White’s health, this is still a great matchup for New York in slowing down the Lions offense at home. Detroit still hasn’t truly shaken their recent road struggles and could easily fall into the Jets hands. If Detroit can’t move the ball then their defense will be shredded by White, making this an insurmountable deficit for Detroit – even if they are only down two scores. Dan Campbell has his guys believing as of recent, but Robert Saleh has his defense convinced all year.
