Betting on the NFL early in the week often presents the best opportunity to find value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor.
In Week 6, there is a slate of 14 games to look at in the NFL betting odds market.
Below are four of the best NFL bets on the board this week, with a focus on the total. Check out all of the best NFL Week 6 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on all of your bets.
Week 6 NFL Picks: Best Bets for Game and Team Totals
Bills at Chiefs (Bills -3, 53.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders just put up 59 combined points on Monday Night Football, and when the Buffalo Bills played the Chiefs in the playoffs last season, they scored 78. The teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in points per game at just over 30, and they are No. 1 and No. 5 in fewest punts. There may not be a single punt in this game.
It projects for a total of 63 points, going way over the Vegas total. The only reason the Vegas total is so low is the Bills defense is getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers. But this is Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at home, and no one will slow them down.
NFL Betting Pick: Total OVER 53.5 (FanDuel -115)
Panthers at Rams (Rams -11, 41.0)
The Carolina Panthers fired head coach Matt Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow, and quarterback Baker Mayfield is injured, giving them a boatload of problems visiting the Los Angeles Rams. Each team ranks in the bottom five in points per game and has a respectable defense.
This may be a 20-13 game, which would point to playing the total. But the Panthers may not even get to 13 against the Rams, and the Panthers defense should be able to get a pass rush on Matthew Stafford. The Rams defense could also score at least one touchdown and put their offense in great field position most of the game.
Any time there is a team total at 14.5, which is just over the key number of 14, look at the under. The team will not land on 15 and most likely will end up having to get to 17, which will be difficult for the Panthers.
NFL Betting Pick: Panthers UNDER 14.5 (-110)
Jaguars at Colts (Colts -2, 42)
These teams are offensively challenged, to say the least. Last week, the Indianapolis Colts beat the Denver Broncos 12-9, and the Jacksonville Jaguars lost to the Houston Texans 13-6. The Colts are dead last in points per game at 13.8, and the Jaguars defense is fifth in points allowed at 16.0. Week 6 already features a rematch, after the Jaguars shut out the Colts 24-0 in Week 2. The Colts were severely banged up at wide receiver in that game, so take that into consideration.
Neither team is going to be able to run the football against the other’s defense, which puts the game in the hands of Matt Ryan and Trevor Lawrence. There may be multiple interceptions from each quarterback in this one.
This should play out similarly to the first game, though the Colts will not likely be shut out again, as they do have some of their wide receivers back. However, this seems like a 19-16 game, which would go under the total.
NFL Betting Pick: Total UNDER 42
