Public perception plays into betting in the NFL more than any other sport. Knowing where the public is betting and if you should follow it or go against it is the difference between being a profitable bettor or being in the red. This week, there are three games in which the public has at least 72% of the bets, and all of them have a unique handicapping angle. Let’s dive deeper into the Week 11 NFL betting trends. For more best NFL bets, check out the OddsShopper tool.
This is the first week in which there are not at least three games with 75% of the public bets on a team.
All three games this week have a spread of three points, with the Commanders are huge public favorites coming off their Monday Night Football upset of the Eagles and favored on the road against the Texans. The Giants and Bears have become public teams in the last few weeks and have interesting matchups this week.
The picks in this article went 1-2 last week and have been 25-13 (66%) on the season. Here’s the best NFL betting trends to track for Week 11.
Week 11 NFL Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Commanders at Texans (Commanders -3, 41)
Commanders -3; Bets 72%, Handle 39%
The Commanders come into this game off their biggest win of the season on Monday Night against the Eagles. There is a huge percentage of the public on Washington with 72% of the bets but only 39% of the handle. This shows that the sharp bettors are thinking they come in flat and do not cover the number as a road dog.
When teams are in situations that they are not used to (Bears as home favorites last week), often times they end up not covering or losing outright. This is also a non-conference road game and I am always going to lean on the home dog in this situation because of motivation or lack thereof. Washington is playing much better with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, having won four out of their last five and their defense has been solid all year.
The Texans do not have much motivation being 1-8-1 and losers of four straight, but they are home dogs in a non-conference matchup. They are 4-2 ATS at home in their last six games. With the spread and total being so low, the ability for Houston to hang around and keep it close is there. I have this game 20-17 with it going either way on the side which is why I will buy the hook on the dog.
Best Bet: Texans +3.5 (DraftKings -122) – FADE THE PUBLIC
Bears at Falcons (Bears +3, 49.5)
Bears +3.0; Bets 83%, Handle 91%
It was a tough loss last week with the Bears against the Lions who ended up blowing the lead late and not getting the win. Now we get the Bears on the road getting +3 and the public has jumped all over them again.
We know the Bears are going to score but allow a ton of points, but we have to pick a side here and I wonder if the Bears can win as they are just 1-4 on the road, 3-7 overall. The danger of this spot for the Bears is we have a public road underdog but the handle is actually higher than the betting public. The Bears are just 1-6 in their last seven games and everyone still has memories of the beatdown they put on the Patriots on Monday Night Football.
The Falcons started off strong being the top team ATS before coming back to earth recently. But they still have a 4-1 ATS record at home and the 4th ranked rushing offense. Motivation is still important here as the Falcons are just one game out of first place in the NFC South even at 4-6. Neither team will be able to stop the other on offense, so it should be an exciting close game.
One key NFL betting trend against the Bears is they are just 1-9 ATS in the 1st half and that is where I will go in this game with Falcons -1.5 1H.
Best Bet: Falcons -1.5 1H (DraftKings -110) – FADE THE PUBLIC
Lions at Giants (Giants -3, 45)
Giants -3; Bets 74%, Handle 73%
This has all the makings of a classic “TRAP” game as the Giants (7-2) are just -3.0 home favorites against the Lions (3-6). The Giants on paper should be at least -6.0 home favorites in this game, but they have a road game against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and everyone has them looking ahead. Meanwhile, the Lions come off an exciting divisional road win against the Bears 31-30.
But what everyone is overlooking is the Lions are a bad football team and I know there is a lot of narrative about their injuries. But when this team goes on the road against better teams especially on the defensive side, they struggle (losses at New England and Dallas combined 53-6). The Giants are 9th in points allowed at 19.2.
A lot of the NFL betting public and sharps point towards DVOA and I use it in a lot of my analysis. The DVOA data on these teams have them just about even with the Giants 19th and the Lions 20th. I do think this game will be closer than the records indicate, but the Lions had lost 12 in a row on the road before last week. This is a different Giants team under head coach Brian Daboll and backing them at home at a field goal or less is the play here.
Best Bet: Giants -3 – FOLLOW THE PUBLIC
