With the NHL icing a stellar ten-game slate Thursday many of the league’s top superstars are in action including Auston Matthews and Filip Forsberg, and are providing us with some strong options on the prop markets with some favorable matchups. For more best NHL bets, be sure to check out our OddsShopper tool.
Let’s have a look at my three favorites and the reasoning behind them.
*Odds courtesy of Fanduel.
Best NHL Bets – Thursday, October 27
Auston Matthews Anytime Goal -108 (Leafs @ Sharks):
The NHL’s clear cut best goal scorer has struggled to an extent throughout the early going of this young season, with just one goal and five assists throughout seven games.
Not for a lack of trying however, as Auston Matthews has put 9.14 attempts per game on net, and he and Mitch Marner have still controlled play at an effective rate on the Leafs’ top line.
Matthews shooting capabilities should allow him to outscore his expected goal rates season after season in the foreseeable future, yet to this point nothing is going in, and he holds a -2.1 goals scored above expected rating this season.
In a far tougher matchup versus a Vegas side which has defended supremely well to start the season Monday, the Leafs’ top unit controlled play to a 56.1% expected goals rate and looked better than that to the eye.
Matthews hit the inner post in that contest, and I think a much softer matchup against a Sharks team skating no logical units to line-match on Matthews/Marner will allow Matthews to finally break through yet again. Let’s look at another one of our best NHL bets for tonight.
Filip Forsberg Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +106 (Blues @ Predators):
Forsberg has hit this line in just 3 of 7 contests so far this season, but for several reasons he projects to hit four often enough in this specific matchup to have value at +106.
Nashville are in the midst of a significant five-game losing streak, and while Predators coach John Hynes has clearly proven to have some flaws, he should easily be able to figure out that he needs to play his well-rested top gunners big minutes if this game is at all close.
The Blues have actually allowed an 10th best SA/60 rate of 30.28 to start this season, however that is far better than St. Louis shots against rate last year, and I do not expect that considerable improvement to hold up over a larger sample.
Particularly on a back-to-back versus what should be a very urgent Nashville side, and we should see the Predators able to get 35 pucks on net from a wealth of attempts.
Filip Forsberg is the Predators best forward, and it realistically is not overly close. He should be relied upon heavily in this spot, and should generate a higher than average amount of attempts on goal, although his 13 shot attempts over the last two games would likely be enough to generate four on average, so even a similar rate should be fine.
J.T. Miller Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +110 (Canucks vs Kraken)
This is another one which strictly by the data may appear to be a less than stellar play, however I feel confident we will see Miller heavily involved in this matchup and that surpassing his season average of shots on goal is likely.
Vancouver’s nightmarish 0-5-2 start has rightfully drawn a ton of attention, and one of the greatest problems for the Canucks in the early going has been J.T. Miller’s horrific early form after signing a big ticket this offseason.
Miller broke through with two goals from four attempts on net versus Carolina Monday in what was his best game of the season, and that performance could allow some extra confidence in coach Bruce Boudreau to rely on Miller heavily in this spot and for Miller himself to fire more pucks on goal.
Miller skated over 21 minutes in that contest, and with Brock Boeser now sidelined, I expect if anything Miller will push past that high time on ice total in this matchup against a far less elite Kraken side.
Those factors make me believe that +110 is a strong price to look for Miller to manage what has been a rare three shot performance in this spot, and his lower average is likely holding up a better number than we should be getting.
