Saturday features a loaded NHL slate with 13 games. Let’s dive into some of the best NHL bets including a look at the best Rangers-Flyers bet and the best Sabres-Coyotes bet. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for more best NHL bets, props and parlays today!
Best NHL Bets Today | December 17
Best Rangers-Flyers Bet: First Period Under 1.5 (+110, DraftKings)
There is a Metropolitan Division clash with the seventh-place Philadelphia Flyers hosting the fourth-place New York Rangers. In what should be a low-scoring affair, this contest could see a particularly slow start given the trends.
Entering this matchup, there have been one or fewer first period goals scored in five of New York’s last eight games and in seven of Philadelphia’s last eight. These trends should continue considering the goaltending matchup.
Projected to start between the pipes for the Rangers is reigning Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin. Picking up right where he left off, Shesterkin has been terrific this season.
Through 23 starts, he is 15-4-4 with a .917 SV% and 2.45 GAA. Shesterkin enters this contest in particularly great form, going 4-0 with a .950 SV% and 1.46 GAA over his last four starts.
Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue for New York’s netminder. Among starting goaltenders, Shesterkin ranks seventh in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.
This elite goaltending should continue against Philadelphia, a team Shesterkin has dominated throughout his career. Across eight career starts against the Flyers, he boasts a .932 SV% and 2.23 GAA.
At the other end of the ice, goalie Carter Hart is slated to get the start for the Flyers. Despite the poor team in front of him, Hart has been solid this season as he boasts a .914 SV% and 2.76 GAA.
Among starting goaltenders, Hart ranks sixth in GSAx/60 at 5v5. While both these goaltenders are outstanding, the same can not be said about these offenses.
At 5v5, the Rangers rank just 20th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) while the Flyers rank third-to-last. Whenever these two teams meet, goals should not be expected as the under has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings, so a slow start should be in store for this one as well.
Best Sabres-Coyotes Bet: Over 6.5 (-105, DraftKings) – 2u
In a rare two-unit play (2% of your betting bankroll), plenty of goals should be in order between the Atlantic Division’s Buffalo Sabres and Central Division’s Arizona Coyotes. There have been seven or more total goals scored in nine of Buffalo’s last 13 games and in seven of Arizona’s last 10.
These two trends should continue in this matchup as Connor Ingram is slated to get the start between the pipes for Arizona. To be as blunt as possible, Ingram has been terrible this season.
Through eight starts, he is 1-6-1 with a .870 SV% and 4.13 GAA. There have been seven or more total goals scored in six of those eight outings.
Positive regression is highly unlikely for Ingram given his metrics. If he qualified, Ingram would rank second-to-last among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
To be fairer to Ingram, the defense in front of him is also terrible. At 5v5, the ‘Yotes rank third-to-last in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
This poor defense and goaltending is going to be disastrous considering Arizona is facing the buzzsaw that is the Sabres offense. Entering this contest, Buffalo ranks third in the league in GF/60 at 5v5.
Not only is Buffalo one of the highest-scoring teams at even strength, but they also boast the second-best power play in the league. Special teams could be an issue for the ‘Yotes as they rank second-to-last in penalty minutes and 21st in penalty kill percentage.
Meanwhile, the Sabres could also allow a decent amount of goals in this matchup as goaltender Craig Anderson is slated to start between the pipes. Although his surface-level numbers are outstanding, Anderson’s metrics suggest that this play is unsustainable as he ranks just 20th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
Additionally, Buffalo’s weakness is playing defense, which could aid in this expected regression. At 5v5, the Sabres rank just 23rd in the league in xGA/60.
Back the trends here and expect plenty of goals in this matchup.
