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NHL Odds and Best Bets: Contrasting Totals

Saturday features an NHL slate with 13 games. Let’s dive into some of the best NHL bets including the total in Pittsburgh. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for more best NHL bets today.

Best NHL Bets Today | December 3

Best Blues-Penguins Bet: Over 6.5 (-110, DraftKings)

The Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins host the Central Division’s St. Louis Blues in what should be a high-scoring affair. Slated to take the crease for St. Louis is goaltender Jordan Binnington, who has been erratic to say the least this season.

Entering this matchup in terrible form, Binnington is 0-4 with a .852 SV% and 4.28 GAA over his last four starts. There have been seven or more total goals scored in three of those four outings.

Among starting goaltenders, he ranks just 20th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. This poor play may continue against Pittsburgh, a team Binnington allowed to score five goals on 41 shots for a .878 SV% in their last meeting.

Playing in front of the Blues’ netminder is a fade-worthy defense that is not aging well. At 5v5, St. Louis ranks just 21st in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

This combination of poor defense and goaltender will be problematic against the Penguins, a team that ranks fifth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5. However, now could be a good time to sell high on Pittsburgh’s projected starting goaltender Tristan Jarry.

While Jarry has been hot recently, his underlying numbers do not support the results he has been posting. At 5v5, Jarry ranks just 21st among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60, which puts him even below Binnington.

The one promising aspect of this Blues team is their offensive depth, while the Penguins’ offense is also the strongest part of their game. Look for these two offenses to light the lamp often in what should be a back-and-forth contest.

Best Sharks-Senators Bet: Under 6.5 (-126, FanDuel)

The Atlantic Division’s Ottawa Senators host the Pacific Division’s San Jose Sharks in what could be an ugly, sand-paper-type game. There have been six or fewer total goals scored in each of Ottawa’s last 10 games, including their last matchup against the Sharks.

Goaltender Anton Forsberg, who is slated to start tonight, was brilliant in relief for the Sens in that game as he stopped 22 of the 23 shots he saw for a .957 SV%. Through three career appearances against San Jose, Forsberg boasts a .925 SV% and 2.54 GAA.

Across the ice, goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen is the confirmed starter for the Sharks. While it has been an incredibly tough start to the campaign for Kahkonen, he is coming off his best performance of the year with a shutout victory over the Montreal Canadiens.

Playing in front of Kahkonen is a team that has been surprisingly strong defensively, ranking in the top half of the league in xGA/60 at 5v5. However, they may not get a ton of goal support as the Sharks rank just 22nd in the league in xGF/60.

While the Senators’ offense is better than the results they are putting up, the expected positive regression is likely not going to come on the second half of a back-to-back following an overtime game. There have been six or fewer total goals scored in four of the last six meetings between these two clubs, a trend that is likely to continue on Saturday night.

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