With a nine-game NHL schedule on tap there is plenty of value on the board worth targeting. Let’s dive in and find the most valuable NHL player props, including Mathew Barzal’s shooting percentage to improve, with the help of OddsShopper.
NHL Player Props | Dec. 6
*Odds for NHL player props come from FanDuel
Jeff Petry over 0.5 points (+102)
Kris Letang unfortunately suffered his second stroke in eight years recently and while his health is in good shape by all accounts, he remains out of the Penguins’ lineup for the time being. As a result, Jeff Petry gets a boost to the Penguins’ top power-play unit and should be able to get on the scoresheet against one of the worst defenses — and teams — in the NHL.
Indeed, Columbus enters this one ranked 31st in overall defense while allowing 3.96 goals per game. They also sit 25th in expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five action while netminder Elvis Merzlikins has been one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL this season.
Merzlikins not only owns a disastrous 4.74 goals against average and .864 save percentage on the season, but his minus-10.67 goals saved above average ranks 70th of 71 qualified netminders with the Oilers’ Jack Campbell standing as the lone netminders worse in that department this season.
For Petry, he has recorded three goals and 11 points in 25 games this season. That’s certainly not elite production by any stretch, but he’s logging monster minutes of late in Letang’s absence. He averages 22:04 of ice time per game but has skated at least 24:26 in each of his last three games including two contests over 26 minutes. He’s notched two assists over his last three games in the process.
Both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are questionable for this one, but Petry should be leaned on heavily again tonight and I like his chances of notching a point against one of the worst back ends the NHL has to offer.
Mathew Barzal any time goal scorer (+240)
I’m going to keep beating this drum to death.
Mathew Barzal has taken 66 shots in 26 games this season and has found the back of the net just three times. That’s a 4.5% shooting rate that is far less than half his career 10.7% figure and less than half of his career-low of 9.3% from a season ago. He dealt with poor puck luck last season, but it’s been taken to a whole new level this time around.
Perhaps the positive regression has kicked in. Barzal scored two games back against the Nashville Predators, but the fact remains that he’s found twine in just two of his 26 games on the season as a two-goal effort accounted for his first two goals of the season. Amazingly, he’s still over a point-per-game with 27 points in those 26 contests despite miserable luck in finding the back of the net.
Things look brighter on that front against a Blues team that’s yielded 5.29 goals per game in losing six of their last seven. The Blues will also play their second game in as many nights with travel involved after taking a 6-4 loss on home ice last night to the New York Rangers. St. Louis not only sits 29th in overall defense but dead last in the NHL with a 65.5% mark on the penalty kill.
Certainly, a player-maker by trade, Barzal is going to start scoring goals in bunches as regression to the mean kicks in moving forward.
Dougie Hamilton over 3.5 shots (+110)
The New Jersey Devils are monstrous favorites as they take on the Chicago Blackhawks on home ice. While The Devils should crush Chicago here, I like Dougie Hamilton to get plenty of pucks on net in this matchup.
For the season, the right-shot blueliner has averaged 3.48 shots per game, putting him right in line with this total. However, he’s also taking on a Blackhawks team that not only sits 30th in shots against per game on the season but one that sits 30th in shot attempts against per 60 minutes at five-on-five and 30th once again in shots against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. This club lets plenty of rubber to reach goal while teams are finding plenty of ways to generate attempts on a weak Blackhawks back end.
Hamilton is in a little bit of a shooting slump right now as he’s failed to exceed three shots on goal in reach of his last five games with an average of just 2.2 shots per game during that time. However, I’m once again looking for some regression to the mean and it would appear this is fine matchup for that to take place.
I like the plus-money value we’re getting on this prop tonight.
