Trevor Zegras and the Anaheim Ducks will head into Madison Square Garden for a showdown with the New York Rangers, and should be desperate for a better effort after taking a thorough pummeling Saturday night on Long Island, falling 7-1 to the Islanders.
Contrarily, the Rangers looked solid in defeat Friday on the road versus Winnipeg in the Jets home opener on a back-to-back and playing it’s third game in four nights with backup Jaroslav Halak in goal.
Will the Ducks hang around with a Rangers side which has looked really strong throughout three games, or is this just a strong opportunity to keep selling on a weak team early in the year?
Anaheim Shaky in the Early Going
Anaheim snuck out a 5-4 overtime win at home over the Kraken to start the season, yet it was about as unimpressive a win as you will ever see, as the Ducks were outshot 48-27 and outplayed by a considerable margin.
Anaheim lost the expected goals battle in that contest 5.03-2.36, which went hand-in-hand with the “eye- test” and found a way to victory behind two well-timed power play goals and a strong showing from John Gibson.
That’s not a way to consistently win hockey games, and therefore made me feel Anaheim was being overvalued heading into New York.
The notion that a similar level of play would likely mean a worse result for the Ducks was proven true, as Anaheim fell 7-1 and was again outplayed by a very steady margin at all strengths, and through two games Anaheim has played to an expected goals for % of just 36.46.
I am not convinced a considerable turnaround is coming anytime soon, as some of the pieces in Anaheim’s lineup are simply below replacement level at this stage of their careers, such as back-enders Dmitry Kulikov and Kevin Shattenkirk, who will likely continue to anchor Anaheim’s third and fourth defensive pairing all season long with poor five-on-five play.
Rangers Poised to Follow Up Eastern Conference Final Berth?
The Rangers have entered this season with arguably as much hype as any roster after a stellar year in 2021-22 resulted in berth in the Eastern Conference Final. Every key piece was set to rejoin the roster, with young talents like Kappo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere possible targets to take meaningful strides forward.
Throughout a small opening sample of three games, I would argue New York has had as strong a start as any team in the league, and is checking a lot of the most important boxes in the eyes of Rangers faithful.
Last season many in the analytics community questioned how good New York truly was due to it’s very modest five-on-five underlying metrics, but throughout a tough slate of competition altogether to start the Rangers have seen contributions from all over the roster and are controlling play at a high-rate.
New York has opened with a home game versus the Lightning and at Minnesota, before Friday’s back-to-back spot versus the Winnipeg Jets, in what was somewhat of a schedule loss.
The Rangers hold a 55.66% expected goals for rate in those three games, and essentially every relevant roster piece has had a strong beginning to the season.
Mika Zibanejad looks lethal on the top unit, and deserves a line to himself to start. Kappo Kakko has also played excellent, which would go as a massive boost to New York and was one of the clear arguments as to why the Rangers could end up better this season.
Artemi Panarin’s stellar playmaking abilities appear to be in mid-season form as well, and it seems Alexis Lafreniere will get another look on that second unit tonight, which is a good thing.
On the back-end Adam Fox has looked dominant as ever on the top pairing, while K’Andre Miller leads a really strong second pairing with Jacob Trouba.
Considering the form from so many key guys on New York’s roster I believe it is quite likely we see the Rangers five-on-five play at least push into above-average territory this season moving forward, which is a scary idea for other teams if Igor Shesterkin can play at the level we saw last year.
So far so good on that front for the 2021-22 Vezina Winner, as Shesterkin has stopped .935% of shots faced, with a +3.2 goals saved above expected rating throughout two games.
Rangers vs. Ducks Betting Pick
It’s a small sample, but throughout two games these teams form has simply not been comparable.
New York enters this contest rested and ready to go, and will have Igor Shesterkin in goal. At +110 I believe we have a good number to back a comfortable Rangers win at -1.5 on the puck line, in a spot where they should likely control far more of the play at five-on-five. If not we may still cash this ticket if Shesterkin is true to form.
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