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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023 Long Shot Golf Bets: Approach Accuracy Will Be Vital for These Two Golfers

The PGA Tour stays in California but returns to the Pro-Am format for another year of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It will again involve three courses and a 54-hole cut over the first three days, offering better opportunities for the accurate approach and strong putting, compared to being long off the tee. There are also the added elements of having a celebrity partner and rounds that grind out over six hours of play. It’s not an easy format, as golfers like Tom Hoge and Jordan Spieth have thrived in these settings. The top of the betting board isn’t filled with as many familiar names, but that just leaves more value for longer plays. Let’s look at the best Pebble Beach Pro-Am long shot golf bets.

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2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Long Shot Golf Bets

Outright Winner Long Shot Bet

Unlike last week at Torrey Pines, there isn’t as much emphasis on clearing the first course with a fantastic score, ideally putting someone in good shape to survive the South Course. All three courses at Pebble Beach don’t require a ton of distance off the tee, or more importantly, won’t penalize a shorter hitter. Strokes gained off the tee aren’t nearly as important as strokes gained on approach and overall putting. Kevin Kisner enters the conversation as a 90-1 long shot (make sure to use OddsShopper to find the best current price) and with a proven track record in match play. That’s the closest thing to the grind that is playing long rounds at the Pro-Am and should provide an extra edge to a golfer with some other advantages.

Kisner is sitting so far off the top of the board because he was horrific off the tee. Despite being one of the most accurate drivers off the tee last year — finishing third overall — he lost strokes off the tee as a result of being one of the shortest hitters. It wasn’t the best season last year for Kisner, but he stands to bounce back under these conditions, especially if he’s able to strike the ball consistently with second shots and approach shots. His putting will be in question this year, rightfully so, as last season was just off overall.

He missed the cut at last year’s Pro-Am but finished top 40 in 2020, and top 30 in 2019. He made the cut here at the U.S. Open in 2019 and has a sense of each of the three courses. Accuracy from approach shots and a nice streak of birdies are absolutely possible for Kisner. He’s fallen victim to the longer courses and struggled to overcome distance; that won’t be nearly a problem this week like it’s been at other events. The hope here is that Kisner has turned around a couple of issues that plagued him last year, and it’s worth a shot at 90-1.

Best Long Shot Outright Winner: Kevin Kisner (+9000, DraftKings)

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Honorable Mention: Russell Knox

One quick shout to both Ben Rasa on Putting for Dough, who nailed Max Homa on the show last week, and his play this week is Russell Knox. Knox enters the week at Pebble Beach as a 70-1 long shot, needing a couple of things in his game to go right for a chance. Much like Kisner above, it is also a good idea to ladder these plays so long as there is a plus-money return back — e.g., laddering Knox at top 40, top 20, top 10 or outright.

Knox isn’t the longest nor the most accurate hitter off the tee, but like Kisner, it shouldn’t matter here. Knox does have one thing going for him that few in this field can match: His ability to be deadly accurate on approach shots. He finished last year sixth in strokes gained on approach, and that will be a driving metric for any success this week. These are small greens to attack, so if both Knox and Kisner are nailing approach shots, they won’t need to rely on their putter as much.

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