The 2022 World Cup wraps back around to Groups A and B on Friday with another four game marathon slate. This is the phase of the tournament when groups really start to take shape and teams start to be tested. We are analyzing three No House Advantage World Cup player props from Wales-Iran and Qatar-Senegal.
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No House Advantage World Cup Player Props
Kieffer Moore Over 0.5 Shots on Goal
The first World Cup player prop features Kieffer Moore to get over 0.5 shots on goal for Wales versus Iran. Wales should be quite confident with its World Cup qualification hopes after snatching a point against the United States. However, a win against Iran is imperative to keep pace.
Moore should be handed a start from Rob Page here after making an instant impact Monday. In fact, Moore put up two shots in just 45 minutes. He was a free header mishit away from drawing level with USA before Gareth Bale‘s penalty. The Bournemouth striker has averaged 1.06 shots on goal per 90 minutes for Cymru in 2022.
On top of that, this entire Wales team could give Iran fits. Wales has many similarities in style of play to England, and we all watched how Gareth Southgate’s side dismantled Iran’s defense from the middle. Considering about 60% of Moore’s shots are on target, he may need more than one chance. That shouldn’t be an issue after seeing how Iran gave England almost 80% possession and 13 shots.
Neco Williams Over 39.5 Passes
Stay with Wales here, betting on Neco Williams to attempt more than 39.5 passes. When you look at the England vs. Iran match, two of the top three pass leaders were Luke Shaw and Kieran Trippier. The English fullbacks finished with 118 and 104 passes attempted, respectively. Some of this can be attributed to the way England plays, but it was also the result of Iran being poor on the wings.
Carlos Queiroz‘s flanks were porous all night, which is why so many chances fell against them in central positions. Wales plays a very similar style of football, with Williams and Connor Roberts as the wings in a back five. Williams, a former Liverpool player, can fly up the touchline and provide for the offense. He has averaged 48.4 passes per 90 minutes for club and country over the past year, which is far beyond this prop value.
He only attempted 36 against the United States, and that was against a team also with solid, high-pressing wing-backs. Williams only needs to complete four more passes against Iran in a must-win match, which seems surefire.
Ismaila Sarr Under 32.5 Passes
Finally, favor Senegal forward Ismaila Sarr to stay under 32.5 passes against Qatar. After watching Qatar on Matchday 1, there should be no doubt Senegal will have a field day against the host country. It will dominate possession, get more chances and should win by a multigoal margin.
Sarr’s mission on the night will not be passing. Moreover, Qatar does not have a strong enough defense or low block to force Senegal into passing the ball around for long periods. The Watford forward will be bombing down the flanks, trying to get on the end of a goal.
He was well short of this prop Monday, with only 20 attempted passes against Netherlands. Even on an annual level, Sarr generally only attempts 24.1 passes per 90. The point being, Senegal will dominate possession but it will not be Sarr breaking the lines or swinging it back around the defense.
