The 2022 World Cup Saturday slate features two Round of 16 games as we start to send some seriously competitive sides home. Three No House Advantage World Cup player props for USA-Netherlands and Argentina-Australia stand out in terms of value.
Check out our OddsShopper tools for more of the best odds in every sport and expert analyses for other No House Advantage picks.
No House Advantage World Cup Player Props
Christian Pulisic Over 0.5 Shots on Goal
Our first World Cup player prop is for USA’s Christian Pulisic to get at least one shot on goal. Earlier in the week Pulisic was listed as day-to-day by USA officials, after suffering a pelvic contusion versus Iran. The injury occurred after the Chelsea winger scored his first goal of the tournament and crashed into the Iranian goalkeeper. Nonetheless, he should still start on Saturday morning, ready to run through a brick wall for his country.
Pulisic has taken six shots so far at this tournament, with two falling on frame. In turn, his SoT% sits at 33% while his SoT/90 ratio is the highest on the team at 0.80.
The Netherlands will not be an easy team to break down, but the right side of their defense feels the flimsiest. Denzel Dumfries can be caught out as he likes to get forward, which should provide Pulisic with some openings. But, more than anything, Pulisic is the guy for America; if they pull off the incredible tomorrow, it will be on his willpower. In this scenario, it is hard to not see him challenging Andries Nopper at least once.
Vincent Janssen Under 0.5 Shots on Goal
Our next World Cup player prop stays with the USA-Netherlands and favors Vincent Janssen to stay under 0.5 shots on goal. Janssen has only played 86 minutes so far and is not slated to start on Saturday. Furthermore, the Antwerp forward has only attempted two shots with none falling on frame of the goal.
I know this game could go the full 120 minutes and he might be one of the fresh pair of legs called on, but this prop just feels unlikely. The United States have faced five shots on target throughout this entire tournament, which is an extreme testament to their defense. It would be harsh to predict ahead of time that a B-side player would be one of the few to challenge Matt Turner in net.
Lionel Messi Under 4.5 Total Shots
Finally, our last World Cup player prop for Saturday is for Lionel Messi to stay under 4.5 total shots. I like Messi and much as the next guy; I even have him down to score along with Argentina to win on Saturday. But this prop just seems a bit exorbitant for my liking.
Despite the offensive chances Messi has created, he has only taken 11 total shots at this tournament. This gives him a shots per 90 ratio of 3.67, which is nearly a unit and a half below what is required for this prop to hit. Ignoring friendlies, Messi has also stayed under this prop in six of his last eight games with Argentina.
Again, these knockout games will probably be a bit cagey to start. Argentina will not have Australia at sixes and sevens in the first ten minutes, which is why I see this prop failing.
