The 2022 Qatar World Cup kicks off on Sunday afternoon with Qatar vs. Ecuador. This is their first ever World Cup match for the hosts, Qatar. Félix Sánchez‘s Ecuadorian side will want to put on an exquisite performance with the entire world watching. Read more below for our Qatar-Ecuador prediction, odds and picks.
Qatar enters the match as slight underdogs with moneyline odds of +220, while Ecuador also has plus odds of +150. With a victory and three points, either side can put themselves in the driver’s seat of Group A, which also features the Netherlands and Senegal.
World Cup Odds: Qatar-Ecuador Odds
| Qatar Moneyline | +220 |
| Ecuador Moneyline | +150 |
| Draw Moneyline | +210 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals | Over: +160, Under: -200 |
| Location | Al Bayt Stadium, Al Kohr, Qatar |
| Time | 11 AM ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Do not underestimate Qatar’s attack to score
It is undeniable that this World Cup has been surrounded with unavoidable, negative noise. Sunday marks the first chance for the Qatari players to finally do some talking of their own, on the pitch.
Generally, you always have to favor the hosts to at least score in the World Cup opener. This notion has rang true in the last four World Cups, even with the likes of South Africa and Russia hosting. On paper, this Qatar side seems like it has even more potential up front with Almoez Ali and Akram Afif leading the line.
The duo have combined for fifteen goal contributions in Asian World Cup Qualifying and are the two players most likely to break through on goal. This is the most favorable game for both sides, so we should expect Ecuador to come out of their defensive shell more, which could leave Qatar with a few chances.
Likewise, Ecuador also has a dangerous attack featuring the likes of Michael Estrada and Enner Valencia. This pair netted ten goals in CONMEBOL qualifying and combined for 1.28 goals plus assists per ninety minutes. On top of that, Valencia has 15 goals for Fenerbahçe this year, converting on 42% of his shots on target. All in all, it is likely that Ecuador will also find the back of the net at least once on Sunday. The odds for both teams to score sits at +110, which I think has tremendous value.
Moises Caicedo will hold possession for Ecuador
In some cases it can be cliché to say that games are won and lost in the midfield. But, Sunday’s match really does feel that way as Moises Caicedo looks to lead Ecuador through the Group Stage. He is one of the few players on the team sheet along with Pervis Estupiñán, who is a difference maker on more than just the goal front.
For one, the Brighton & Hove Albion midfield can put in a defensive shift, if needed. In fact, he ranks in the top 80th percentile for both tackles and blocks per ninety minutes for midfielders in Europe’s top five league.
Elsewhere, he can press and also advance the ball with his passing. If Moises Caicedo gets time on the ball, he will be able to pick out the likes of Valencia or Estupiñán which is where Qatar run into problems. Valencia’s threat has already been discussed, but Estupiñán is also a nightmare for Qatar’s right-back, Abdelkarim Hassan. The 24 year-old is extremely pacey, and receives about 3.1 progressive passes per ninety, showing his knack to get forward. If Ecuador can get the best out of these two players, it could be a disappointing evening for the hosts.
Final Qatar-Ecuador Prediction & Pick
Ultimately, Qatar has a tall task at hand on Sunday, even as the hosts of the World Cup. They are trying to be the first World Cup debutant to win their first game since Senegal did the impossible back in 2002. This is no easy feat, and my gut says that Ecuador will spoil the festivities with a win.
Ecuador are the better team here and they proved that over a grueling CONMEBOL qualifying campaign. Qatar’s only two victories in 2022 (2-3-1) came against Bulgaria and Albania, which proves their inability to perform against top sides. I still favor both teams to score, but I love Ecuador to come out on top with their moneyline odds of +150.
Final Qatar-Ecuador Prediction: BTTS (+110) & Ecuador Moneyline (+150)
