When the Utah Utes and Oregon Ducks meet in Eugene this Saturday, they’ll have a lot on the line. Using data and tools, with a focus on Cameron Rising and other important talent, we’ll be making our Utah-Oregon prediction by showcasing odds and other information.
Both programs have suffered two losses this year, one conference and one non-conference, so neither has a realistic shot at the college football playoff. However, whichever team wins this matchup will put itself in a great spot to earn a bit to the Pac-12 Championship. A quick look at the college football odds reveals that the Ducks are slight home underdogs because of questions surrounding Bo Nix. Bettors looking to make a profit on Saturday’s marquee matchup should tail the Utah-Oregon prediction and picks — or check out OddsShopper’s tools.
College Football Odds: Utah-Oregon Odds
Utes Have Regressed From Last Year
The Utah Utes opened the season with hopes of qualifying for the college football playoffs, but an opening loss to the Florida Gators pretty much ended their chances. Utah still could've made it by running the table afterward, but their road loss to UCLA resoundingly shut the door. Fortunately, the conference is still in play -- with only Oregon and Colorado left on the schedule, a win on Saturday would virtually guarantee them a shot at the Pac-12 Championship.
The Utes have looked respectable on offense -- at least when healthy. The team ranks 26th in yards per play (6.2). Quarterback Cameron Rising ranks 22nd in passing efficiency, although he trails four other Pac-12 signal callers in the metric, including Oregon's Bo Nix. His 8.2 yards per attempt (Y/A) ranks fifth in the conference. Running back Tavion Thomas has averaged a respectable 5.1 yards per carry but hasn't looked as dominant as he did last year.
Utah's defense has fallen off this season. The Utes now rank just 31st in defense, per the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and rank 91st in yards allowed per play (5.8). They have especially struggled against the pass and rank 92nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.7). USC's Caleb Williams threw for 381 yards and five touchdowns in a narrow road loss to the Utes. UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 299 yards and four scores.
Ducks Can't Defend the Pass
Like the Utes, the Oregon Ducks opened the year with a brutal loss to an SEC opponent. While the Ducks have improved considerably since their 46-point defeat at the hands of the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs, last week's loss to Washington ended their hopes of a playoff bid. Now a chance at the Pac-12 Championship may not even materialize.
The Ducks have leaned on quarterback Bo Nix this season. The Ducks rank second in yards per play (7.2) largely because Nix ranks eighth in yards per attempt (9.2), which leads the Pac-12. Nix also leads the Pac-12 in passing efficiency and ranks fifth overall. Nix has also contributed 512 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.
Unfortunately for Oregon, Nix went down late against Washington. Although he is preparing himself "as if he can go" on Saturday, per head coach Dan Lanning, it remains to be seen if he'll actually suit up. Should Nix sit, second-string backup Ty Thompson would likely take his place. Thompson has completed just 51.4% of his collegiate passes for 4.5 Y/A, two scores and three picks. That said, Lanning hasn't ruled out the possibility of using Jay Butterfield, who has attempted only four collegiate passes for 5.8 Y/A.
Oregon's defense ranks among college football's worst. The unit ranks 74th in the FEI and 115th in yards allowed per play (6.1). Opposing quarterbacks have had their way with the Ducks -- Oregon ranks an abysmal 97th in yards allowed per rush attempt (7.8) and is dead last in passing yards allowed per game (312.2). Washington's Michael Penix Jr. just threw for 408 yards against them last week.
Final Utah-Oregon Prediction & Pick
The questions surrounding quarterback Bo Nix's availability have caused this spread to flip from Oregon -3 to Oregon +2. Given their backups' unimpressive numbers and the team's reliance on Nix, the Ducks would likely be far larger underdogs should their star quarterback sit. Bettors eager to chase steam can still find value on the spread down to Utah -3, but since Utah is just 26-31 as a road favorite under head coach Kyle Whittingham, wagering a full unit on the Utes when Nix can still play is a big risk.
Instead, bettors should turn to the player prop markets. Oregon's abysmal passing defense makes Utah quarterback Cameron Rising a sharp pick to go over his passing yardage prop. His total sits at 247.5 at Caesars, which is right at his season average (247.2) despite Oregon's inability to defend the pass.
While Rising didn't beat that number against the Ducks in either last year's regular-season contest or the Pac-12 Championship, he had the benefit of a stronger defense and a more efficient Tavion Thomas. Further, the Ducks ended last year ranked 37th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7) and 93rd in passing yards allowed per game (249.8), far better than the historic lows they have reached this year.
Best Utah-Oregon Bet: Utah -2 (-110 for 0.55 Unit) at DraftKings
Cameron Rising Prop Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Ceasars
