There are quite a few games on Monday’s slate that provide different angles of value, from a one-sided pitching matchup to a lineup looking to bounce back from a disappointing weekend. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Monday, Aug. 15.
Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Mets at Braves Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
Load up all the cliches you can with this series featuring the top two teams in the NL East. As much as there are postseason implications in this game, the only thing that matters here is both Carlos Carrasco and Spencer Strider keeping a clean sheet through one. The Mets come off two straight games of holding the Phillies scoreless and have a great chance with Carrasco to keep the Braves at bay, at least through the first inning. Atlanta comes off a series win over the Marlins but only scored a first inning run in one of those four games.
Strider is a strikeout machine, but he can leak runs in a shorter start. He’s had a full week off and returns after a shaky start against the Mets, despite the higher strikeout total. He can settle in at home against a Mets team that goes from 0.83 runs per first inning (RPFI) at home to 0.43 RPFI on the road. That helps the Braves and their starter.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Mets at Braves NRFI (-110 BetMGM)
Padres at Marlins Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
Joe Musgrove is one of baseball’s better pitchers and has seen seven strong starts over his last 10 outings. He takes on a Marlins team that doesn’t do much in the first inning — 0.29 RPFI at home. This is a strong matchup for a guy in Musgrove with a 24.5% strikeout rate and a low walk rate, as he should plow through this Marlins lineup in the first inning.
Then there’s the other guy, Sandy Alcantara, on his way to winning the NL Cy Young award. It’s vital to shop this number because it’s as high as -175 at other books. There is a legit break at BetRivers at -150 that significantly cuts into any vig. Playing the number is one thing, but backing that with the potential NL Cy Young winner going against another really good pitcher seems like a good move. San Diego is second worst in all of baseball behind Detroit, averaging just 0.23 RPFI on the road.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Padres at Marlins NRFI (-150 BetRivers)
Astros at White Sox Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
The plus-money play of the day finds itself in Chicago as the Astros send Jose Urquidy to the hill, countered by the White Sox starting Johnny Cueto. The White Sox aren’t strong in the first at their own park, averaging 0.40 RPFI at home, but Houston is fifth best in baseball with a 0.56 RPFI road average. While the numbers — be it ERA or WHIP — may jump out for these pitchers, neither is dominant enough to outpitch season trends, especially for the White Sox at home. No team in baseball gives up more RPFI at home than the Sox, averaging a league-worst 0.65 runs to visitors. It’s not a true knock on Cueto, as he’s been fine but not good enough to handle Houston.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Astros at White Sox YRFI (+100 BetMGM)
