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NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks for Monday, July 8

Nathan’s red-hot NRFI streak has earned him a well-deserved vacation. But we also don’t want to slam the breaks on the smoking picks, so we’re still bringing you a solid NRFI bet (plus an OddsShopper Premium model bet) for today to keep the good times rolling. If you somehow haven’t yet, jump in on Nathan’s Discord, where he gives all of his betting picks every day — and get 20% off when you use code NATHAN.

Now let’s head to our nation’s capital and see about a no run first inning pick.

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NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals | NRFI Bets Today

He’s not Jesus Luzardo or anything — and giving up five earned runs last start doesn’t look great — but Mitchell Parker is turning into a solid NRFI option. Even with those five earned runs against the Mets last time out, Parker sat them down with a 1-2-3 first inning that included a pair of strikeouts.

And he only ended up fanning five total, so Parker brings his A-game out of the gate. He’s now up to 11-4 on NRFI chances this year.

This time he gets the Cardinals, who are a far cry from the Mets in terms of overall offensive firepower and about the same in terms of first inning production. The teams are tied for 19th in MLB in first inning runs this year, averaging 0.44 per game.

But at least the Mets have power out the wazoo, as evidenced by the three home runs they got off Parker after the first inning. They are top 5 in ISO and home run rate; the Cards, meanwhile, are in the bottom 6 of baseball in every power metric this season.

Parker’s team’s bats are even worse and a frequent target of Nathan’s NRFI exploits: The Nationals are DFL in runs per first inning (0.28) and one of the few teams with power numbers lower than the Cardinals across the board.

Miles Mikolas and Parker are both pitching to contact this year (sub-20% strikeout rates), but they also don’t walk many hitters. That at least gives us some security that they won’t allow easy base runners to these bad offenses.

With the impotence of the offenses on our side, we go with the NRFI.

Best NRFI Bets Today: Cardinals-Nationals NRFI (-110 at Fanatics)

If you’re looking for another bet in the Cardinals-Nationals game outside of the NRFI, be sure to check out our market-based MLB betting model pick below for another +EV play today!

Washington’s newly minted All-Star CJ Abrams has a prop with some decent value in the OddsShopper model.

The current odds of -180 at ESPN BET bring some hefty juice, but they still are beating the market right now. With most other books offering -185 or shorter, we’re getting positive expected value (+EV) on this bet.

It has a 2.3% EV grade in the OddsShopper model, but the 66% expected win percentage is a fairly strong number and gets us to an OS Rating of 2, which is a good number to get to with these props.

So if you’re looking for another bet within the Cardinals-Nationals game, this is one +EV bet that you can look to make with confidence, according to our OddsShopper Tools.


Eric Lindquist’s Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions for Monday, July 8, 2024
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