With only a month left in the season, it’s time to hit another huge strikeout Prop Party parlay! This parlay features up to five player prop bets that’ll give you the best chance to win based on our Stokastic simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/6
Paolo Espino O/U 2.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The veteran right-hander Paolo Espino hasn’t been pitching all that well from a win standpoint, but is racking up strikeouts with ease lately. Espino is 0-6 through 15 starts and 35 appearances this season. Being a starting pitcher on the Washington Nationals it is hard to find any wins. Tonight will likely be no different, as Espino will pitch on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are a -250 favorite. Regardless of losing games, Espino has averaged 4.2 strikeouts per game in his last six starts while going over this 2.5 strikeout prop line in each game. The Cardinals have a dangerous-hitting lineup that doesn’t strike out much, but this prop line is way too low. Stokastic projects Espino for 3.6 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 69%, which is the highest in this parlay. A difficult matchup, but a prop line that is simply too low.
Best MLB Pick Today: Paolo Espino OVER 2.5 Strikeouts (-182)
Kyle Wright O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Atlanta Braves have won five straight games as they are now just one game back from the New York Mets. They will send Kyle Wright to the mound tonight, who leads the league with 17 wins and a very low 2.85 ERA. Wright is actually 13-2 since the start of June. Pair that with a career-best 24% strikeout rate and Wright is one of the best pitchers in the league this season. He will draw a cupcake matchup against the Oakland Athletics, who are the second worst in many hitting statistics in the league. They rank 12th in strikeout rate as this will be Wright’s second start against them this season. In his first start, Wright had seven strikeouts and only allowed two runs in eight innings pitched. Wright has accumulated five or more strikeouts in each of his last four games. Stokastic projects Wright for 5.2 strikeouts in this spot and that even seems a little on the safe side.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kyle Wright OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Framber Valdez O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
There seems to be no slowing down the Houston Astros as they continue to roll through the American League. Framber Valdez, who leads the team in innings pitched, will take the mound tonight against the Texas Rangers. He has been cruising lately, but getting to seven strikeouts in any matchup is tough for a pitcher who only has a 22.6% strikeout rate. Valdez has done better decreasing his walk rate, but he still has allowed above a 40% hard-hit rate for the fourth straight season. The Rangers rank 10th in strikeout rate, but can randomly get hot hitting the ball with their strong top of the lineup. Stokastic projects Valdez for 6.4 strikeouts, which is very close to this prop line. Valdez has been pitching well lately, but he is still an underdog to reach seven or more strikeouts. He is our lone under strikeout prop in this Prop Party parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Framber Valdez UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Kris Bubic O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Another relatively low strikeout prop features Kansas City Royals young left-hander Kris Bubic. He hasn’t quite transferred over his very high strikeout rate in the minor leagues, but has shown upside frequently in the major leagues. In 12 of his last 16 starts, Bubic has captured four or more strikeouts with several starts recording at least six. The reason this prop has so much juice attached to it is because the matchup against the Cleveland Guardians, who have the lowest strikeout rate for a team in the league. Despite being in the same division, this is Bubic’s first start against the Guardians this season. For what it’s worth, Bubic has averaged 4.8 strikeouts per game in his last five home starts. Stokastic projects Bubic for 3.7 strikeouts tonight rounding out our Prop Party parlay that has an xWin rate of 12%.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kris Bubic OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)
