The Detroit Pistons hosts the Dallas Mavericks in the sole game on tonight’s NBA slate. Detroit lost their most recent game to the Knicks and could play without Jaden Ivey (questionable) once again whereas Dallas is coming off an impressive win over Golden State and has both Christian Wood (illness) and newly signed Kemba Walker listed as questionable. Below, we’ll focus on Marvin Bagley III and Spencer Dinwiddie and look for each to have a successful rebounding night. Be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool for more best NBA player props and best bets.
Best NBA Player Props | December 1
Marvin Bagley III Prop: O/U 5.5 Rebounds
Dallas is a subpar rebounding team. Notably, opponents secured 43.9 rebounds per game playing against the Mavs in November (14 games), 11th most in the association. Despite their lackluster rebounding as a team, Dallas does a great job limiting opposing centers to only 12.11 rebounds per game, second fewest on the season. With that being said, Marvin Bagley’s rebounds prop for tonight’s game (5.5) seems to low given his production since entering Detroit’s rotation last month.
Bagley entered the rotation 10 games ago and started as center in each of Detroit’s last nine games. He averages 9.9 rebound chances and 6.4 rebounds per game thus far in limited playing time (23.5) and has gone over today’s line in six out of his nine games as a starter, including in four straight outings. Despite the tough individual matchup, Bagley is projected for no less than 6.7 rebounds in tonight’s game and the over on his rebounds prop has an expected win percentage of 60%. Furthermore, this play could look even better in case Wood is ruled out given that Dallas’ rebound percentage slightly decreases playing without him on the floor (46.2%, down from 48.7%).
Best NBA Player Prop: Marvin Bagley OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-155 At DraftKings)
Spencer Dinwiddie Prop: O/U 2.5 Rebounds
Detroit is an even worse rebounding team. The Pistons allowed opposing teams to average 44.7 rebounds per game in November (15 games), seventh most in the league. Detroit is particularly vulnerable to opposing shooting guards, allowing 7.12 rebounds per game to the position, fourth most in the league. While these rates are mostly based on Jayden Ivey playing as Detroit’s starting shooting guard, the Pistons still allowed a plethora of rebounds to opposing shooting guards in their last three games playing without Ivey – Devin Booker had seven, Donovan Mitchell had five, and Quentin Grimes had six in less than 28 minutes. In other words, Dinwiddie is in a good spot to rack up rebounds whether Ivey plays or not.
As for Dinwiddie, he is averaging 5.4 rebound chances and exactly three rebounds per game this season, going over 2.5 rebounds in 11 out of 20 (albeit only twice in his last five). His rebounds prop was 2.5 earlier today (the over at around -175) but ticked up and is currently at 3.5. Dinwiddie is projected for 3.6 rebounds in today’s affair so if the line moves back to 2.5, the over is very much in play. While the odds for the over won’t fairly correspond to Dinwiddie’s hit rate on his rebounds prop, we only have one game to choose from and tonight’s favorable matchup and projection are tough to ignore.
Best NBA Player Prop: Spencer Dinwiddie OVER 2.5 Rebounds (IF Available).
