After a small 4-games slate yesterday, The NBA is back with 8 games on Friday night. Focusing on two favorable matchups, we’ll look for Jarrett Allen and Fred VanVleet to have successful outings. Be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool for more NBA player props and best bets.
Best NBA Player Props | November 11
Jarrett Allen O/U 25.5 Points + Rebounds
Cleveland concludes its 4-games road trip out West in a matchup against the defending champs in one of the slate’s late games. The game’s total is 231.5 and Golden-State are currently favored by 2.5-3 points so Vegas projects this to be a high-scoring, competitive matchup. This is also a significant pace-up spot for Cleveland considering that the team plays at the league’s sixth-slowest pace (97.81) whereas Golden-State plays at the second-fastest pace (103.38). Thus, focusing on Cavs’ players to go over their respected prop lines makes a lot of sense. One such player is Jarrett Allen, who averages 32.4 minutes, 14.1 points. 19.2 rebound chances (fourth-most in the league), and 11.7 rebounds per game (tied for fifth-most) this season.
Team-wise, Golden-State allows opponents to score an average of 120.6 points per game, second-most in the league. Opposing centers are doing particularly well, averaging 27.6 points per game against the Warriors, tied for most in the league. Furthermore, Golden-State also have a low-ish 48.6% rebound percentage (22nd), allowing 44.2 rebounds per game to opposing teams (14th-most). Notably, the team allows 16 rebounds per game to the center position, sixth-most in the association.
Allen went over today’s combined points and rebounds prop in 7 out of 11 games this season, including in all 5 most recent outings. Considering the favorable matchup, it’s not surprising that Stokastic’s projections have him going over it in tonight’s game as well, scoring 14.3 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. The preferred bet here is Allen going over his combined points and rebounds prop (-120) but betting on him to simply go over his rebounds prop (11.5, +105) is also viable.
Best NBA Player Prop: Jarrett Allen OVER 25.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 at BetMGM)
Fred VanVleet O/U 11.5 Rebounds + Assists
The Toronto Raptors are playing against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Fred VanVleet is in a good spot to go over his combined rebounds and assists prop (11.5).
Playing at the league’s eighth-fastest pace (101.44), the Thunder present a pace-up matchup for the Raptors who play at the league’s ninth-slowest pace (98.21). Oklahoma City is also an awful rebounding team, allowing opponents to average 50.8 rebounds per game, most in the league. Importantly, opposing point guards average roughly 7 rebounds per game against the Thunder, sixth-most. While the team is much better at limiting opponents assists to only 23.9 assists per game (11th-fewest), they allow 9 assists per game to the point guard position, seventh-most in the league.
As for VanVleet, he averages 37.4 minutes, 14.2 potential assists (ninth-most), 7.2 assists (12th-most), 8.7 rebound chances, and 3.9 rebounds per game this season. Importantly, he sees an increase (roughly 3.5%) to his assist rate and to a lesser degree to his rebound rate (1.5%) when playing without Pascal Siakam this year, as will be the case tonight. VanVleet went over tonight’s combined prop in 5 of 9 games this season and over his rebounds prop in 4 games, albeit only once in the last 3 games (since Siakam’s injury).
He is currently projected for 8 assists and roughly 5 rebounds in tonight’s game, making both the over on his rebounds prop (3.5) and combined rebounds and assists prop (11.5) enticing propositions. Given that he went over his combined prop more frequently than his rebounds prop and the odds for each of the overs to hit tonight (+100 for the former, -140 for the latter), betting on VanVleet to record 12+ rebounds and assists at plus money should result in a better return.
Best NBA Player Prop: Fred VanVleet OVER 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (+100 at multiple books)
