Thanksgiving is almost here, and that means another day of rest for the NBA. Fortunately, Adam Silver has scheduled a 12-game slate for Wednesday night, so bettors have no shortage of markets to target. The following NBA player props offer a solid return — but bettors can always check out OddsShopper’s tools and Stokastic’s player prop model for other smart plays.
Top NBA Player Props | November 23
Marvin Bagley O/U 12.5 Points
Once a second overall pick for the Sacramento Kings, Marvin Bagley has started to carve out a niche on the Detroit Pistons. Unfortunately, Detroit’s injury-riddled roster has forced him into a larger role. While that isn’t good for his efficiency, it’s great for his volume — Bagley has averaged 8.6 shots and 12 points per game since Isaiah Stewart‘s mid-game injury against the Raptors. He went over this number in three of those five contests.
Bagley draws a great matchup in the Utah Jazz tonight. The Jazz rank a speedy 10th in pace and allow the most points in the paint per game (57.3) and the most points to centers (25.8). Not only have the Jazz defended the rim poorly — they rank third in shots allowed from the restricted area per game (20) — but they have also struggled in the non-restricted paint, where they allow the second-most shots per game (8.6).
Bagley almost exclusively shoots from the paint. He has taken 3.3 shots from the restricted area and 3.0 shots from the non-restricted paint per game. He ranks third and second, respectively, among Detroit’s active players in shot frequency from those spots on the floor. Bagley can also draw fouls at a decent clip and has averaged 2.4 free-throw attempts per game since entering the starting lineup.
Best NBA Player Prop: Marvin Bagley OVER 12.5 Points (-105 for 1.05 Units) at DraftKings
Jarred Vanderbilt O/U 16.5 Points + Rebounds
But Bagley won’t make every shot, and when he misses, Jarred Vanderbilt will be right there to grab the rebound. The Pistons have struggled on the glass with Isaiah Stewart sidelined — their team rebound rate dips by 2.2% with him off the floor. Bagley now starts at the five, but his rebound rate of 11.5% leaves much to be desired. Vanderbilt, who owns a rotation-best rebound rate of 18.8%, should take advantage of that mismatch on the glass.
Vanderbilt should benefit from Detroit’s poor paint defense as well. The Pistons have given up the second-most makes from the restricted area per game (20.6). They have also allowed the most points per game to power forwards (24.4). Both trends bode well for Vanderbilt — he has taken 3.6 shots per game from the restricted area and spent 68% of his minutes at the four. The two fours the Pistons have faced most recently, Aaron Gordon and Harrison Barnes, torched them from the paint and the charity stripe for 17 and 27 points, respectively.
Vanderbilt has averaged 7.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this season, which puts him right under his posted total of 16.5. The books should have adjusted this number a bit more because of Detroit’s struggles at the rim and on the glass, so bettors can find a bit of value in playing the over.
Best NBA Player Prop: Jarred Vanderbilt Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-105 for 1.05 Units) at DraftKings
Killian Hayes O/U 2.5 Turnovers
Few players have played worse than Killian Hayes. With Cade Cunningham sidelined, the Pistons have leaned on Hayes to pick up more minutes at point guard and as the primary ball-handler. This has not gone well for Detroit. The Pistons are 11.6 points less efficient with him on the floor, and their turnover rate increases by 1.2%.
Since entering the starting lineup against the Boston Celtics, Hayes has averaged 1.7 turnovers per game. He went over this number twice, once against the Celtics and again against the Nuggets. With the fast-paced Jazz turning opposing point guards over 4.1 times per game, the fourth-highest rate in the NBA, Hayes should struggle again tonight.
The Pistons have tried to minimize Hayes’ role, but their depleted rotation and lack of guard depth have led him to average 30.4 minutes per game over their last seven games. With the Pistons coming off a back-to-back that saw veteran Bojan Bogdanovic play a team-high 35 minutes, Detroit may opt to reduce his run tonight, which would give Hayes more chances to slip up.
Best NBA Player Prop: Killian Hayes Over 2.5 Turnovers (+145 for 0.75 Unit) at DraftKings
