After only one game yesterday, The NBA is back in full swing on Friday. Today’s 11-games slate has several attractive games, including a matchup between the Warriors and the Bulls. Playing at home, Golden State is currently favored by 7-7.5 points and the game’s total is at 236.5-237. Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins both have positive individual matchups, and we’ll look for them to go over their respective props. As always, be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool for more best NBA player props and best bets.
Best NBA Player Props | December 2
Stephen Curry Prop: O/U 5.5 Rebounds
Despite a favorable matchup against the Bulls, Curry’s rebounds prop (5.5) for tonight’s game sits below his season average of 6.7 rebounds per game (highest in career, 1.2 rebounds above his previous best). Curry averages 11.1 rebound chances per game and had six or more rebounds in 13 out of 20 games this season, including in three of his last five (he had five rebounds in the other two games). Chicago is an average rebounding team, allowing 43.1 rebounds per game to its opponents (15th in the league). Importantly though, the Bulls allow the eighth most rebounds per game to opposing point guards (6.5). Jrue Holiday (five), Cameron Payne (five) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (eight in a game that went to overtime, had seven in regulation) all went over their rebounds prop against the Bulls recently and all three average less rebounds per 36 minutes than Curry.
Given Chicago’s tendency to allow opposing point guards to rack up rebounds and Curry’s rebounding numbers so far this season, it isn’t too surprising that he is projected for 6.77 rebounds in tonight’s game. Altogether, taking the over on his rebounds prop in tonight’s game should prove profitable.
Best NBA Player Prop: Stephen Curry OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-120 At FanDuel)
Andrew Wiggins Props: O/U 2.5 3-Pointers & O/U 1.5 Steals + Blocks
Chicago allows opponents an abundance of 3-pointers and is particularly vulnerable to the small forward position. Chicago limits opponents to only 33.4 3-point attempts per game, 11th fewest in the league. Nonetheless, the Bulls allow opposing team to shoot extremely well from downtown (37.9%, second best) and average 12.7 made 3’s per game, ninth most in the association. Specifically, Chicago allows roughly three 3-pointers per game to the small forward position, fourth most in the league. Enter Andrew Wiggins, who averages 6.7 3-point attempts and 2.9 made 3’s per game so far this season. Wiggins had three or more 3-pointers in 10 out of 20 games this season, including in four of the last five. Wiggins converts roughly 43% of his 3-point attempts so he could see some negative regression as the season progresses (he shot 38% in 2020-21 and 39.3% last season). Still, tonight’s matchup is a good opportunity for him to continue staying hot from beyond the arc . Stokastic’s projections also favor the over as Wiggins is currently projected for roughly three 3-pointers in tonight’s affair. In all, getting plus money (best odds as of time of writing are +135) for Wiggins to have an average outing shooting the three in a favorable matchup is quite enticing.
Wiggins should also make an impact on the defensive end. Wiggins averages 1.4 steals (tied for 17th best) and 0.8 blocks per game so far this season, recording two or more combined steals and blocks in 15 out of 20 games. Team-wise, Chicago is a good matchup for blocks but less so for steals – opponents average 6.1 blocks (fourth most) and 6.4 steals (sixth fewest) per game against the Bulls. Their rates against opposing small forwards tell a similar yet slightly more encouraging story as Chicago allows 1.05 blocks (fourth most) and 1.34 steals (13th fewest) per game to the position.
At current odds (-165), the implied odds for Wiggins going over tonight’s “stocks” prop (62.26%) are much lower than his hit rate (75%). This, alongside the slightly favorable matchup (particularly blocks-wise), indicates that there’s value in taking the over on Wiggins’ combined steals and blocks prop in tonight’s game.
Best NBA Player Prop: Andrew Wiggins OVER 2.5 3-Pointers (+135 At FanDuel) & OVER 1.5 Steals + Blocks (-165 At DraftKings)
