The NBA has a small, four-game slate on tap this evening. With Thursday Night Football competing for viewers’ attention, the NBA has scheduled only the Hawks-76ers matchup for national viewing audiences. Bettors looking for a solid return from tonight’s card should target the following NBA player props — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other smart plays.
Top NBA Player Props | November 10
Tyrese Maxey O/U 2.5 Turnovers
Few NBA player props offer more value than this one does tonight. Through the last two games — the first two that James Harden has missed with an injury — Tyrese Maxey leads the NBA in touches per game (113) and time of possession. He turned the ball over four times against the Knicks and twice against the Suns.
While the Hawks haven’t been the best at forcing turnovers, they still rank 19th in turnovers forced per game (19.9), largely by virtue of their seventh-fastest pace. But Maxey’s four turnovers against New York point to value here — the Knicks rank 26th in opposing turnovers per game (13.5) and only 13th in pace. Since the Hawks rank seventh in pace, Maxey will have plenty of chances to make mistakes.
This number should either have the juice stacked on the over or sit at 3.5. But bettors can buy Maxey to turn the ball over three times in the plus money, which his new high-volume role will likely cause him to do. Maxey was averaging 2.2 turnovers per game before Harden’s injury, so this line has that much more value now.
Best NBA Player Prop: Tyrese Maxey OVER 2.5 Turnovers (+100 for 2 Units) at DraftKings
Kelly Oubre Jr. O/U 2.5 Made 3’s
Opposing guards have cooked the Miami Heat on the perimeter. The Heat have allowed the second-most made triples per game to shooting guards (4.6) and point guards (3.8). They are tied for allowing the seventh-most above-the-break 3’s (9.7) and have given up the second-most corner 3’s (4.7).
Enter Kelly Oubre Jr. Oubre has spent 72% of his minutes at shooting guard this season, which has allowed him to attempt 1.9 corner 3’s and 1.6 above-the-break 3’s per game. Only Terry Rozier has attempted more long-distance shots for the Hornets. Importantly, Oubre has been far more accurate from the corner this year — he has nailed 42.9% of his corner 3’s, while Rozier has hit only 20%.
The Hornets enter Thursday’s contest on the wrong end of a back-to-back set. Both Oubre and Rozier played roughly the same share of minutes, and the Hornets can’t afford the luxury of resting either player. Back Oubre to hit at least three triples against Miami’s vulnerable perimeter defense.
Best NBA Player Prop: Kelly Oubre Jr. OVER 2.5 Made 3’s (-135) at DraftKings
Trae Young O/U 25.5 Points
The Philadelphia 76ers play at such a slow pace that Young will struggle to surpass this number. Although the books have shaved 2 points from where Young’s total closed last night, that may not have been enough. Young scored no more than 25 points against the 76ers last year, and he now must share touches with Dejounte Murray.
This play isn’t all about pace — Philadelphia’s defense is getting underrated. After their putrid start to the year, the 76ers rank second in defensive rating through the last two games (98). They have even allowed the fewest points per game to opposing point guards (17.2) on the year. Losing Harden has forced defensive specialist De’Anthony Melton into a higher-volume role.
Young is also on the wrong end of a back-to-back and is coming off an injury. He missed Monday’s game against the Bucks with a shin injury and could see his usage scaled back somewhat as a result.
Best NBA Player Prop: Trae Young UNDER 25.5 Points (-110 for 1.1 Unit) at DraftKings
