After a handful of narrow losses in our NBA same-game parlays, it was nice to hit one in Game 2. Thanks, Derrick White! Well, today we’re building another same-game parlay with long-term profitability in mind, not just individual results, and another Celtics guard is our focus. Now let’s create a Caesars NBA same-game parlay bet for Celtics-Mavericks with the help of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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Celtics-Mavericks Parlay: Caesars SGP With Jrue Holiday
Leg #1: Jrue Holiday Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
We’re going to double dip into a little Jrue Holiday regression territory.
He’s not favored to win Finals MVP — or even close to it — but Holiday is probably the most deserving two games in. High-end defense plus 19 total rebounds and a 26-point Game 2 usually an MVP contender make if the star is not exactly delivering, which is the situation with the Celtics.
That 26-point game was Holiday’s second most of the playoffs, however, and basically an outlier given he has more games of 6 or less than he does 20-plus. There is also the matter of Holiday being on one of the best rebounding stretches of his career: Four straight games of at least eight. That has helped him hit this PRA number quite a bit despite him underperforming his typical assist numbers.
Holiday averaged only 22.7 PRA in the regular season, and he’s only at 24.1 in the playoffs even with those huge rebounding numbers. If those normalize and his assists kick up, he will be looking more in that low-20s PRA range rather than the 25-plus he has been getting. That’s the regression play we’re targeting, and under 24.5 PRA is the No. 2 player prop on the board at 1.1% +EV with a 52% win rate at -104 odds.
This bet is all about market value because the trends are pretty strongly favoring an over here for Holiday. But it’s important to remember if you are new to +EV betting that your edge shows how you’ll make money over the long term — but it may be a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
Leg #2: Jrue Holiday Under 13.5 Points
These two bets go hand in hand since Holiday’s best route to over 24.5 PRA is a higher-scoring game. But we’re fading him there, so we might as well do it here too — especially since it’s at plus money with a win rate over 50%. That’s automatic positive expected value.
Holiday is averaging exactly 13.5 points per game in the playoffs, a full point ahead of his regular season average, but Game 2’s 26-pointer is swinging that a good amount. This is also coming with Jayson Tatum in a massive shooting slump.
Now, there is no guarantee Tatum will work his way out of it tonight, but chances are he will at some point and Holiday will get fewer looks. That’s the way OddsShopper Parlay Builder is seeing it, giving Holiday a 52% chance of scoring less than 13.5, and the True Odds of -109 make this bet +EV by 4.3%.
Wrap it all up, and these Holiday bets get us to +292 for the full parlay and 5.31% +EV — and Caesars is the only book where this is positive expected value.
Celtics-Mavericks Parlay Today: +292 at Caesars
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