The Memphis Grizzlies tip off their season at home as 4 point favorites to the New York Knicks. With a total of 226.5 points, scoring is expected from both sides in what should be an up an up-and-down battle. In this post, we’ll be specifically focusing on the Knicks-Grizzlies odds and using information to point out trends and make some picks.
The Knicks made headlines this offseason due to the massive Jalen Brunson signing and Donovan Mitchell trade rumors. Ultimately, the Knicks decided against making a blockbuster with the Jazz and instead will be returning much of the core from last year’s team, along with Brunson.
Aside from trading De’Anthony Melton for Danny Green, the Grizzlies had a relatively quiet offseason and didn’t make many moves to improve their roster from last year’s impressive 56-26 squad.
Tip is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at the FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee.
Knicks-Grizzlies Odds
Knicks -Grizzlies spread: Grizzlies -4
Knicks-Grizzlies over/under: 226 points
Knicks-Grizzlies money line: Grizzlies -190, Knicks +158
New York Undervalued?
While it might be a surprise to many, New York actually had the best cover rate in the Association over the past two seasons. 80-56-2 against the spread in that time frame, the Knicks show up and compete every night under coach Tom Thibodeau.
Of course, Memphis has that same ‘gritty’ reputation, but fading them at the beginning of the season looks like the sharp move. While the Grizzlies had the second best record in the league last year, they start the season without the services of Jaren Jackson Jr., and with both Kyle Anderson and the aforementioned Melton gone to greener pastures.
Jackson’s injury is the big one here, as he’s the linchpin defensively for Memphis, protecting the rim and switching on the perimeter. With Steven Adams expected to play more in Jackson’s absence, don’t be surprised if the Knicks guards feast against his drop coverage. His loss will be felt on offense as well, as his shooting spaces the floor and gives Ja Morant the room he needs to operate in the paint.
New Look Knicks
The Knicks season was a massive disappointment last year, as they finished 37-45, going under their projected win total by four games. Thibodeau had his team 10th in Defensive Rating, but New York’s inefficiency of offense killed them as they ranked just 24th in Adjusted Offensive Rating.
Enter Jalen Brunson and pass-first big man Isaiah Hartenstein, and the Knicks should be significantly more efficient on the offensive end of the floor. The ultimate floor general since his days at Villanova, Brunson should provide a leadership presence the Knicks have sorely lacked, and the Hartenstein signing, while under the radar, has the potential to significantly bolster this team on both ends as well.
Hartenstein finished his last year with the Clippers with 77 blocks, the same number as teammate Ivica Zubac who started and played 600 more minutes than Hartenstein. As mentioned above, Hartenstein is a great passer and that was evident in his 20.5% assist rate, which ranked fourth-best among centers behind only Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Kelly Olynyk. His 66.4% True Shooting Percentage also ranked fourth, behind only Montrezl Harrell, Jarrett Allen, and Rudy Gobert. Simply put, Hartenstein has the potential to be an instant contributor for a team that desperately needs his skillset.
Knicks-Grizzlies Prediction
There’s no doubt that the Grizzlies are still a very formidable team, but their offseason screams regression, and it will be an uphill climb for them to finish in the top four of a loaded Western conference. While they added some nice young talent in the NBA Draft, it would be unrealistic to expect any of those guys to contribute early in the season, and suddenly the Grizzlies are a team with potential depth issues as they start the season with Jackson hurt and Anderson and Melton no longer in Memphis.
When facing Morant and the Grizzlies, transition defense is arguably the most important facet of the game and the Knicks should present a big challenge to Memphis here as they ranked first in transition frequency and second in transition points per 100 possessions last year.
Matched up with a Grizzlies bench that looks to be significantly weaker from last season’s team, the Knicks also have a decided advantage with their second unit and ultimately that’s what keeps them in this game.
New York is very live to win this game outright, but either way, they cover the 5.5 point spread with relative ease.
NBA Odds- Final Knicks-Grizzlies Prediction and Pick: New York +4 & New York ML + 155
