The Suns are hosting Dallas in a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Semifinals. Aside from Dallas losing Jalen Brunson (signed with the Knicks) and signing Christian Wood, both teams were relatively quiet during the offseason after finding success last year. Focusing on each team’s first quarter stats from last season, the total for tonight’s Mavericks-Suns matchup looks like it’s a bit higher than it should be.
NBA Betting Picks Today: Mavericks-Suns Bets First Quarter Total
Starting with the home team, Phoenix was one of the best teams in the league last season, including in the first quarter. The Suns played at a top-10 pace and had the sixth-best net rating, winning the first quarter by an average margin of 2.2 points. They had the sixth-best defensive rating and held opponents to 53% effective field goal percentage (13th best) and only 26.9 first quarter points, fifth fewest in the association. With a similar roster to last year’s one, the Suns defense should continue to impress. Offensively, Phoenix had the 11th-best rating and averaged 29.1 points per opening quarter, eighth most in the league. Altogether, the average first quarter score in Phoenix’s games was 56.
Dallas was also a very good first quarter team, finishing the regular season with the eighth-best net rating. The Mavericks played at the league’s second-slowest pace (behind only Utah) and had the eighth-best defensive rating, limiting opposing teams to a low 52.5% effective field goal percentage (sixth best) and only 26.4 first quarter points, third fewest in the league. Due to their slow pace, and despite having the eighth-best offensive rating, the Mavericks only averaged the 17th-most first quarter points (27.9).
Like their opponent tonight, do not expect Dallas to play much differently from how they played last year, though losing Brunson could hurt them offensively if Wood can’t provide an offensive spark from the bench. The Mavericks won the first quarter by an average margin of 1.5 points, and the average first quarter score in their games was 54.3.
Dallas’ first quarter defense was worse in its away games, while Phoenix’s defense was worse playing at home. Nonetheless, the average first quarter score in Dallas’ away games (55.3) and Phoenix’s home games (56.6) was still below 57. All in all, despite Phoenix’s fast pace of play and both teams’ offensive talent, more signs point towards the under here. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds — while FanDuel has the first quarter total at 55.5 and DraftKings at 56, both PointsBet and BetMGM have it at 56.5.
Best NBA Bets Pick: UNDER 56.5 First Quarter Total Points (-115 at BetMGM)
