Don’t let March Madness distract you from the absolute surplus of value you can find on the NBA today — and all weekend. Tools like OddsShopper Premium can help you navigate busy days like today by automatically finding enough +EV bets to fill out your card. That said, let’s get into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Thursday, including a Dejounte Murray prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Thursday, March 21
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Zion Williamson Bet
Zion Williamson had two bets popping in the model when I first checked — the unders for both his assists (4.5) and points (22.5) were rendering with some positive expected value (+EV) at certain books when I first looked. But instead of playing either, I recommend combining them to play the under points and assists (27.5) for marginal extra breathing room at no cost.
Williamson depends on his interior scoring and doesn’t dish out many assists. Unfortunately for him, today’s opponent, the Orlando Magic, doesn’t roll over in the paint. The Magic have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game since the All-Star Break (44.3).
Importantly, the Magic cause problems both in the restricted area, where they have allowed the 10th-fewest made field goals per game since the ASB (16.5) and the non-restricted paint, where they have allowed the fourth-fewest (5.6). Williamson takes 62.4% of his shots in the former zone and 32.7% in the latter zone.
Oh, and what about assists? Good luck getting them versus Orlando. The Magic have allowed the fewest assists per game this year (23.9) and the third-fewest since the ASB (23.6). Over the last 15 games, they have allowed the eighth-fewest assists to power forwards (3.7) to go with the third-fewest points (18.3).
NBA Expert Pick Today: Zion Williamson Under 27.5 Points & Assists -110 at Fanatics
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Paolo Banchero Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting tools strongly advise that you put some action on this Paolo Banchero player prop ASAP. Currently, FanDuel is offering a bet for odds of -136 that our model believes has true, or breakeven, odds of -149. The model draws that conclusion due to Pinnacle, a sharp book, listing the same bet for -174.
Over a large enough sample size, bets like this one are enough to dramatically transform your bankroll (like it has done so for me!). Over the last seven days, we’re cutting up the books for an 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Expert Pick Today: Paolo Banchero Under 1.5 3-Pointers -136 at FanDuel
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Dejounte Murray Bet
The Atlanta Hawks are on a mini-win streak over the Phoenix Suns, but that won’t last through tonight. Despite being in flux with injury, the Suns are healthy and have Grayson Allen putting the ball in the hoop from everywhere.
The only way Murray clears this number is by dropping 35 points in 41 minutes, but it’s hard to think he gets that against the Suns. The true odds of him staying under 40.5 points, rebounds and assists (PRA), per OddsShopper, are -118, so we get a nice break at -104 on FanDuel.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Dejounte Murray Under 40.5 PRA -104 at FanDuel
