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NBA Summer League Bets & Picks: Total Markets Remain Inefficient (July 5)

The NBA Summer League rolls on with action in the 2023 California and Salt Lake Classics. Hosted in Sacramento and Salt Lake City, respectively, the action gives us a chance to see some rookies and young up-and-comers. Some sportsbooks, including FanDuel and BetMGM, are taking action on tonight’s games, so I’m here to identify my top NBA Summer League bets and picks, which will both come on the inefficient total markets.

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NBA Summer League Bets & Picks: Total Markets Remain Inefficient

San Antonio Spurs-Los Angeles Lakers NBA Summer League Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook 
Spurs: -215 | Lakers: +172
Spurs -5.5 -102 | Lakers +5.5 -120
Over 173.5: -115 | Under 173.5: -105

This pick is going to be pretty boring. You’ll find the total set to 172.5 or lower across the market. FanDuel is still hanging the 173.5, and we can buy the under at the discounted price of -105 (51.2%). Let’s get action on this market before the value disappears. Remember, Victor Wembanyama isn’t playing until Friday’s game in Las Vegas.

Aside from market-based factors, there are other reasons to buy the under. The books have massively corrected the summer league totals after all but one game crossed the 180-point threshold on Monday. However, an NBA-average squad averaged about 85 points per game in last year’s Summer League, so the books have somewhat overcorrected by setting all of today’s totals above 170.

The Lakers racked up 90 points in their first Summer League game behind a 17-point showing from guard Max Christie. L.A. shot 43.4% from the floor and 20.8% from beyond the arc, with Christie accounting for 60% of the team’s made 3-pointers. if the Lakers roll out the same lineup on Wednesday, similar perimeter inefficiency is likely, which caps the team’s ceiling.

The Spurs blitzed the Hornets early and racked up 98 points, 60 of which came in the first half. They shot 45.3% from the floor and 36% from beyond the arc. Wing Julian Champagnie exploded for 30 points with shooting splits of 45-42-78. Aside from him, the only Spur to make multiple perimeter shots was guard Erik Stevenson. Unless more Spurs find their shot from deep, it could be hard to replicate that scoring output.

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Best NBA Summer League Bet: Under 173.5 -105 for 0.5 Units at FanDuel

Miami Heat-Sacramento Kings NBA Summer League Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook 
Heat: +116 | Kings: -142
Heat +2.5 -114 | Kings -2.5 -106
Over 177.5: -112 | Under 177.5: -108

Although I just said the books have heavily corrected their pricing on the total markets, I don’t think they’ve adjusted enough for this game. The Kings scored 100 points against the Warriors on Monday, while the Heat hung 107 on the Lakers. Both teams employed offensive strategies that should yield plenty of points moving forward.

A few big-name players will see action in this one. Wing Keegan Murray made his return to the Summer League on Monday and accounted for 29 of Sacramento’s points. He shot a solid 47-33-91, which is sustainable production for him. Wing Kessler Edwards, who played the third-most minutes behind Murray, scored 10 on 36-0-0 but should bounce back tonight. The Kings shot 48-29-77 overall.

The Heat played Miami Heat basketball on Monday. They took 73 shots, 33 of which came from beyond the arc. They shot 52-46-73 as a team. Every player attempted at least one three-pointer. Guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. led the way with 22 points on 53-43-100, slightly ahead of the 21 from Nikola Jovic on 58-50-71. Center Orlando Robinson took the next-most shots (13) but scored only 13 points on 39-67-33.

While both squads got efficient production out of their leading scorers on Monday, they had enough unrealized potential down the box score for their high-scoring output to be sustainable. Let’s lock in the over 177 at the best price on the market — we can buy it for -110 (52.4%) at DraftKings.

Best NBA Summer League Bet: Over 177 for -110 for 0.5 Units at DraftKings

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