Death Valley will host an SEC West showdown between the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers at 7 p.m. ET Saturday. In our continued college football odds coverage, it’s time to present our Alabama-LSU odds and prediction.
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College Football Odds: Alabama-LSU Odds
This game could go a long way in earning a trip to the SEC Championship game. The Crimson Tide (7-1, 4-1 SEC West) have lost only to the Tennessee Volunteers of the SEC East. LSU (6-2, 4-1 SEC West) also has lost to Tennessee, with a season-opening lost to the Florida State Seminoles.
Alabama opened as a 14-point favorite, but the line has moved in favor of the home team. The spread is now down to 13.5, which is significant because that means it has moved off a two-touchdown line. The total has dropped from 58 to 56.5, per the sportsbook consensus at pregame.com.
These teams have delivered in the same way for bettors so far this season. Alabama and LSU are each 5-3 against the spread (ATS), and have played to the Under in five games apiece.
Bryce Young helped by open week
As much as a team like Alabama can need anything, it really needed a break.
Last time out, on Oct. 22, the Crimson Tide defeated the Mississippi State Bulldogs 30-6, after the 52-49 loss to Tennessee. But Alabama really hasn’t been the same since quarterback Bryce Young injured his shoulder against Arkansas on Oct. 1. Young missed a win against the Texas A&M Aggies before returning to face Tennessee and Mississippi State.
Young told reporters this week that the opportunity to rest was beneficial. That could prove to be bad timing for an LSU defense that is giving up 204.3 passing yards per game and ranks 49th in passing EPA (expected points added).
Even with the injury, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has been one of the better players in college football. Young has thrown 18 touchdowns and three interceptions in seven games, completing 66.1% of his passes for 1,906 yards. Young always seems to play his best when the lights are brightest, and Saturday’s matchup could be the latest example of that.
Jayden Daniels hopes to stay hot for Tigers
Though nobody compares to Young, LSU starting quarterback Jayden Daniels has put together a strong season as well. Daniels transferred to LSU after three years of up and down play with the Arizona State Sun Devils.
This season, Daniels has completed 69.9% of his passes for 1,812 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception. He threatens a defense with his legs, producing 524 yards and nine scores on 113 attempts.
Daniels has been even better of late, showing more decisiveness as he becomes more familiar with this system. He is 44 of 60 with five touchdowns in leading LSU to wins over the Florida Gators and Ole Miss Rebels. Alabama’s defense will be a different test, but Daniels can give LSU a chance if he continues to play well.
Final Alabama-LSU Prediction and Pick
For quite some time, Alabama’s first-half spreads were the gift that kept on giving. There hadn’t been many opportunities to go back to that well of late, due to the injury to Young, but you can go back to laying a full touchdown with the Crimson Tide in the first half Saturday.
Alabama ranks third in the nation averaging 25.8 points in the first half, and LSU is 69th with an average of 13.3 points. The Crimson Tide are also giving up only 8.6 points in the first half, which ranks 13th in college football.
It might be a hostile environment, but the Crimson Tide are coming off a bye and know what is at stake. Expect Nick Saban’s squad to set the tone Saturday.
Final Alabama-LSU Prediction: Alabama -7 first half (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
