The No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers have achieved something they haven’t since 2001: a top-six ranking in October. The Volunteers have fallen off considerably since their dominant run in the late 1990s, but this weekend’s home game gives them a chance to put the last twenty-plus years of pain in the rearview mirror. Still, the sportsbooks predict Alabama will top Tennessee by at least a touchdown. It would mark head coach Nick Saban’s 16th consecutive win over the Volunteers.
Alabama enters the Week 7 contest after a near-loss at home to Texas A&M. While the Crimson Tide can blame quarterback Bryce Young’s absence for their struggles, Alabama still fell two spots in the AP Poll. Saban can’t even say with certainty that Young will play this week, although the quarterback has been practicing in a limited capacity.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Week 7 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Alabama vs. Tennessee Betting Odds
Crimson Tide Strong But Not Invulnerable
Although Alabama remains undefeated, the Crimson Tide have already had two close calls. Their Week 2 trip to Texas ended in a narrow one-point win. Their Week 6 home stand against Texas A&M ended in just a four-point win that the Aggies almost stole on the game's final play. Alabama may still rank third in the AP Poll and the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), but this team just hasn't looked as dominant as it once did.
Alabama's offense has leaned on two players: quarterback Bryce Young and running back Jahmyr Gibbs. The Crimson Tide's offense ranks fourth in yards per play this year (7.3) and sixth in the FEI as a result of their strong performances. Young has averaged 9 yards per attempt (Y/A) this year, which ranks 23rd, and ranks 13th in passing efficiency. Gibbs leads the team in rushing and ranks a close third in receiving. His 8.3 yards per carry (YPC) ranks third in the FBS among eligible running backs. Gibbs accounted for 41.8% of Alabama's yards against Texas A&M. Young's backup, Jalen Milroe, averaged only 5.7 Y/A on his way to 111 passing yards.
The Crimson Tide may have a top-heavy offense, but their defense has played good team football. Alabama ranks first in yards allowed per play (3.6), third in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.4) and sixth in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.3). The unit trails only Georgia in the FEI. However, the unit has looked vulnerable to chunk passing plays. Three of Texas A&M's players finished with at least one catch of 25 yards or more, as did three of Texas'. Those plays didn't always go for scores, but they usually set up either a short-yardage touchdown or a field goal.
The Tennessee Volunteers Are Finally Back
The undefeated Tennessee Volunteers head into their biggest game in recent memory coming off a dominant 27-point road win over LSU. The Volunteers ran out to a 20-point lead and never trailed. Quarterback Hendon Hooker threw for 239 yards and two scores, and running back Jabari Small ran for another 127 yards and two scores. Tennessee got the win without lead receiver Cedric Tillman, who underwent tightrope surgery a month ago in hopes of getting ready for Saturday's game against Alabama. Unfortunately for the Volunteers, Tillman isn't expected play on Saturday.
Head coach Josh Heupel's offense looks fantastic. The Volunteers' offense ranks seventh in yards per play (7.1) but first in yards per game (547.8) and second in the FEI. Heupel's fast-paced, up-tempo offense ranks sixth in seconds per play (20.9) and has worn down opposing defenses for chunk plays. Hooker has completed 70% of his passes, which ranks 15th, for 11.7 Y/A, which ranks fourth. He ranks seventh in passing efficiency. Hooker will need some help from his receivers to exploit Alabama's secondary, but they have proven solid thus far. Speedster Jalin Hyatt has reeled in 27 passes for 388 yards and five scores, while big-bodied Bru McCoy has caught 20 passes for 351 yards and two scores.
Tennessee's defense has been vulnerable but clutch. The Volunteers prevented Pitt from scoring in overtime and shut down Florida after the Gators narrowed it to a one-score game. Still, Tennessee's defense ranks 31st in yards allowed per play (5) and 37th in the FEI. Although the unit has shut down opponents on the ground, as the Volunteers rank sixth in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.8), the secondary ranks just 51st in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.9). However, the defense has reliably produced some splash plays -- Tennessee ranks 20th in sacks per game (2.8) and 18th in takeaways per game (2).
Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction
The outcome of this game likely hinges on the status of Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. If Young is both active and healthy, he should be able to exploit Tennessee's porous secondary enough for the Crimson Tide to win their 16th-straight game against the Volunteers. But if backup Jalen Milroe starts -- or if Young's shoulder limits him as a passer, as the fact he remains on a pitch count in practice suggests -- Tennessee could easily pull off the upset behind chunk passing plays by Hendon Hooker.
The uncertainty around Young likely explains why this spread is as narrow as it is. After opening at -14.5 earlier in the year, the line re-opened at -7.5. It has since fallen to -7. Approximately 67% of the tickets have come in on Tennessee but only 53% of the cash, which suggests the Volunteers are the public team. Since the spread will likely move once Nick Saban gives a firm answer about Young's status -- which may not happen until kickoff -- buying in late at the key number of -7 feels square. The time to buy this line was before the key number earlier in the week.
Instead, bettors should play the first-half spread. The Volunteers must get out to a hot start if they want to beat the Crimson Tide, because that would force them to play catch-up. Alabama struggled in that type of game script against Texas. The Volunteers have actually averaged more points per first half than the Tide this year, 27.4 to 27. The Volunteers have surrendered only 0.8 more points per first half than their opponents as well. Buying Tennessee plus +4.5 first-half points feels sharp. Bettors should also consider wagering a half-unit on the moneyline in hopes that Young sits.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee First Half +4.5 (-105) at FanDuel
Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee Moneyline (+240 for 0.5 Unit) at FanDuel
