For those familiar with prop betting, PrizePicks puts an interesting spin on player projections. Users actually create lineups of player props with a shot to 10x their money with certain constructions. This article will dive into the six College Football bowl games on Saturday, giving analysis on the best CFB props to consider, including a Cameron Ward fade.
CFB Props PrizePicks: Dec. 17
Evan Prater – Over 135.5 Passing Yards
Cincinnati’s replacement for injured Ben Bryant, Evan Prater struggled through his first two games of action. In his first full start against Tulane, Prater completed 10 of 26 passes for just 102 yards. This disastrous performances justifies a low passing prop here. However, Prater’s first true start came against Tulane’s 13th ranked secondary on just a week’s notice. This time, Prater will have multiple weeks to prepare for a Louisville defense that ranks 93rd in coverage before considering the departures from the program. Even with opt outs at receiver and tumbling total, Prater still projects for 173 passing yards when adjusted for this game environment. Even adjusting Cincinnati’s pass rate down to 40% doesn’t equate to a projection this low. While the game environment remains gross, this listed prop lacks proper context when evaluating Prater as a passer.
Cameron Ward – Under 260.5 Passing Yards
Similar to Prater above, Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward deserves deep examination on this slate. Ward quarterbacks an air-heavy offense for Washington State that features 59.6% pass rate and operates at the 33rd fastest pace. However, Ward’s passing prop comes in a bit rich here considering the game environment. The total only sits at 52.5 points and Washington State enters the contest as a four point underdog. Making matters worse, Ward will play without his top three receivers in De’Zhaun Stribling, Donovan Ollie, and Renard Bell. On top of that, Fresno State ranks 15th in pass defense. On the projection side for us, Ward projects for 239.5 passing yards in a game that plays to the spread.
George Holani – Under 101.5 Rushing Yards
Runner-up in the Mountain West, Boise State will face North Texas here. Both teams focus on the run game here. Boise State ranks 94th in pace with a 43.4% pass rate. Similarly, North Texas only passes 46.1% of the time potentially slowing the game. From there, lead back George Holani has increasingly split time with Ashton Jeanty down the stretch. In Boise State’s last game against Fresno State, Holani only out-carried Jeanty 13-7. In fact, Holani has only out-carried Jeanty 49-34 over the last three weeks. Making matters worse, North Texas plays decent run defense, ranking 21st according to PFF. While not quite the same value as the props listed above, Holani only projects for 91.8 yards on the back end for us. With multiple paths to failure, Holani unders make sense here.
Ricky Pearsall – Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Like many teams during bowl season, Florida has experienced multiple opt outs, beginning with their quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson operated as one of the premier dual threats in the country, but backup and starter Jack Miller actually functions as more of a pocket passer. A former four-star recruit at Ohio State, Miller should have enough talent to command the offense. From there, Florida lost starting receiver Justin Shorter to an opt out. This leaves Ricky Pearsall to take on a larger role within the offense. Pearsall draws a tough matchup against an excellent Oregon State defense, but he already averaged 50.3 yards per game on 4.5 targets. With more volume likely coming his way, Pearsall has a solid chance to eclipse this receiving prop. On the back end, Pearsall projects for 59.9 receiving yards in the elevated role, making his receiving props some of the sharper bets on the slate.
