After disappointing seasons, the Louisville Cardinals and Cincinnati Bearcats meet in the Fenway Bowl on Saturday. Each team will make a coaching change for next season and have an interim coach in this game. Likewise, each will start a backup quarterback and have numerous opt-outs. Louisville is a narrow favorite in the college football odds, and bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Fenway Bowl predictions, or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
College Football Odds: Fenway Bowl Odds
Louisville Mostly Down to Backups
The Louisville Cardinals lost a lot in recent weeks. Starting quarterback Malik Cunningham has declared for the NFL Draft, head coach Scott Satterfield announced he'll coach Cincinnati next season, and all-ACC cornerback Kei'Trel Clark opted out. As a result, the Cardinals will start backup quarterback Brock Domann. Director of player development Deion Branch, a former wide receiver in the NFL, is the interim head coach.
But the Cardinals have plenty to look forward to. Domann hasn't played terribly when forced into action this year. Alumnus Jeff Brohm will return to Louisville to coach this program next year, as well. Although the Cardinals will have a limited roster in Boston, these players will have a chance to redeem themselves after a disappointing loss in the First Responder Bowl last year.
Domann won't have the benefit of several offensive playmakers. Running backs Tiyon Evans, Trevion Cooley and Jalen Mitchell opted out or entered the transfer portal. Leading wide receiver Tyler Hudson also opted out. Fortunately, Louisville's defense hasn't gotten chewed up as much. It was ranked 15th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and should cause problems for the Bearcats. Louisville ended the regular season ranked 33rd in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.8) but 60th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1).
Cincinnati Without Multiple Starters
Like the Cardinals, the Cincinnati Bearcats won't have a number of key pieces. Quarterback Ben Bryant is out with an injury, and none of the four best receivers will play, either: Tyler Scott, Tre Tucker, Jadon Thompson, Josh Whyle and Nick Mardner are out. They had combined for 2,508 receiving yards, 81.6% of Cincinnati's total passing yards. Starting center Jake Renfro entered the transfer portal.
Backup Evan Prater will take over for Bryant. Prater attempted 51 passes this year, completing 54.9% for 340 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. His passing efficiency grade (107) would rank 107th among 113 FBS quarterbacks if he had thrown enough passes to qualify. While Prater is a threat on the ground, it's hard to see him doing anything more than running with Cincinnati's entire receiving corps out.
Fortunately, Cincinnati owns a solid defense. It ranked 33rd in the FEI but allowed the sixth-fewest yards per play (4.4). With head coach Luke Fickell and defensive coordinator Mike Tressel off to Wisconsin, the Bearcats will turn to cornerbacks coach and special teams coordinator Kerry Coombs. He struggled as Ohio State defensive coordinator before taking the job at Cincinnati, so the defense could lack continuity Saturday morning.
Final Fenway Bowl Prediction & Pick
Bettors who tailed OddsShopper's early bets column got Louisville as a pick'em. With Louisville now a 1.5-point favorite, bettors won't find as much value on the Cardinals. Louisville has picked up the majority of the cash for this one, and the spread hasn't moved enough to warrant buying low on Cincinnati.
The under would be a great value here if sharps hadn't bet it down from 45 to just 39.5. While fading these offenses against these defenses would make sense in a regular-season game, it's unclear how motivated those units will be. For instance, the Bearcats went from playing in the College Football Playoff last year to, well, the Fenway Bowl. Backing Louisville remains the sharper angle for this game, although bettors who already have exposure to them as a pick'em shouldn't double down for a worse price.
Final Fenway Bowl Pick: Louisville -1.5 (-110, DraftKings)
