It has been a crazy season so far, with a ton of upsets of top-ranked teams. Eastern Michigan (1-1) from the MAC is taking on Arizona State (1-1) from the Pac-12. Both teams are coming off a loss and would love to go into conference play in Week 4 with some momentum.
These two conferences don’t match up very often. Arizona State beat Kent State back in 2019, while Eastern Michigan hasn’t played an opponent from the Pac-12 in over 20 years. In theory, the Pac-12 should have better talent than the MAC and should win these matchups more than 90% of the time.
But last week, Sun Belt conference member Appalachian State, a 17.5-point underdog with a +600 moneyline, beat No. 6 Texas A&M. Arizona State is favored by 20 points in a game with a total of 56.5. Eastern Michigan has gone way over this total in both of their first two games, while Arizona State has gone under in their two games.
Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State Week 3 Prediction
Arizona State Offense
The Sun Devils are led by Florida transfer Emory Jones, a run-first quarterback. In two games, he’s only completed 25 passes and has been sacked four times. Last week against Oklahoma State, a superior defense shut down Jones’ rushing ability. On seven attempts, he was sacked three times and had a total of negative-17 yards. The result was the Sun Devils getting doubled up on the scoreboard.
This is a run-first team that averages 199 yards rushing per game and only 187 passing. The Eagles defense is surrendering 41.5 points a game, 330 yards passing and 145 rushing. Keep in mind, this was against Eastern Kentucky and Louisiana.
Arizona State tailback Xazavian Valladay leads the Pac-12 in yards rushing with 234 on 6.5 yards per carry. The Eagles defense had a 14-0 lead at halftime against Louisiana last week and ended up surrendering 49 points in the second half. If Jones needs to throw the ball, he should have no issue against an Eastern Michigan secondary that has allowed 330 yards passing a game and a MAC-worst eight touchdowns.
Eastern Michigan Offense
Senior Taylor Powell leads the Eagles offense. He passed the ball well in their Week 1 victory over Eastern Kentucky on 30 attempts. However, against Louisiana, he had to throw the ball 50 times because they were behind, and he didn’t fare so well. He was sacked four times and threw three interceptions.
The Arizona State defense is 17th in the nation against the pass and has allowed only 185 yards a game through the air. In their 34-17 loss to Oklahoma State, they held star quarterback Spencer Sanders to 55% completion and forced him to throw an interception. It was on the ground where Arizona State lost the game, giving up 197 yards rushing. The Eagles have only run the ball 54 times in their two games for a miserable 2.9 yards per carry.
Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State Prediction
The Eagles of Eastern Michigan seem to be outmatched here on both sides of the ball, and a victory for Arizona State at home is inevitable, but can they cover the 20-point spread? The Sun Devils should be able to run the ball effectively behind Valladay and Jones to get up early in this one, forcing the Eagles and Powell to throw the ball in comeback mode. That is not going to be easy against a top-ranked secondary.
Powell threw three picks last week and is in line to throw a few more under pressure from the Sun Devils. This should give Arizona State good field position and plenty of opportunities to run up the score and get above that 41.5 points the Eagles are allowing per game. There will be too much sun for the Eagles in this one.
NCAAF Best Bet: Arizona State -20 (-107) on PointsBet
