With a Mississippi State win in the Egg Bowl, college football’s rivalry week is well underway. Another marquee matchup, Florida-Florida State, will kick off tonight at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN. The 6-5 Gators, who just fell to the Vanderbilt Commodores, will look to bounce back against the 8-3 Seminoles, who are riding high on a four-game winning streak. Bettors looking for a positive return on Friday’s action should tail these Florida-Florida State picks and predictions, including an Anthony Richardson prop, — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
College Football Odds: Florida-Florida State Odds
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Gators Without Most Receivers
The Florida Gators have underperformed in head coach Billy Napier’s first year at the helm. They rank just 28th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). The Gators scored a big opening-week win over the Utah Utes but went a dismal 3-5 in conference play. Florida is already bowl-eligible with six wins, so the Gators have little left to play for other than pride.
Florida’s offense can run efficiently but struggles with the pass. The unit ranks 21st in the FEI and 23rd in yards per play (6.2) behind a talented rushing attack. Florida’s offensive line ranks a solid 35th in line yards, which has helped quarterback Anthony Richardson and the running backs lead the offense to a fourth place ranking in yards per rush attempt (5.6).
Richardson’s limitations as a passer have led Florida to rank 68th in yards per pass attempt (7.3). Richardson ranks 73rd of 105 eligible quarterbacks in passing efficiency. He threw for an impressive 400 yards against Vanderbilt last week, but he’ll have his work cut out for him against Florida State. The Gators won’t have wide receivers Justin Shorter, Xzavier Henderson, Ja’Quavion Fraziars, Marcus Blake and Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman, who have accounted for 1,152 receiving yards this year. Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall and tight end Keon Zipperer are both questionable and have accounted for another 625. The Gators have totaled only 2,532 passing yards this year, so over 70% of their receiving production is on the injury report.
The Gators looked terrible on defense. They gave up 31 points to the Vanderbilt Commodores, who were then led by their backup quarterback, Mike Wright. The defense ranks 56th in the FEI and 107th in yards allowed per play (6). They have struggled against both the run and the pass — Florida ranks 104th in yards allowed per rush (4.7) and 101st in yards allowed per pass (7.8).
Are the Seminoles Back?
The Florida State Seminoles were 7-point favorites on the look-ahead markets before this week’s game, but they now boast a full 10-point advantage in the college football betting markets. It makes sense — the Seminoles rank 16th in the AP Poll and 10th in the FEI. The ‘Noles might not be back atop the ACC, but head coach Mike Norvell has the program trending in the right direction. The Seminoles have earned their first winning record in the regular season since Jimbo Fisher’s penultimate year in 2016.
Florida State’s offense finds itself among college football’s best. The offense ranks seventh in the FEI and 10th in yards per play (6.6). The Seminoles have featured a relatively balanced attack and rank 16th in both yards per rush (5.3) and yards per pass (8.5). Quarterback Jordan Travis ranks an impressive 12th in passing efficiency. Although the Seminoles have mostly beaten-up weak ACC competition, they earned an opening-week win over No. 6 LSU.
The Seminoles have played solid defense as well. The defense ranks 30th in the FEI and seventh in yards allowed per play (4.4). However, the ‘Noles have fared better against the pass than the run, which won’t give them as much of an advantage against the Gators. Florida State ranks fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.8) but only 37th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.8). Louisville’s Malik Cunningham, a comparable quarterback to Richardson, racked up 243 passing yards on 7.14 yards per attempt against them. He added another 127 yards with his legs.
Final Florida-Florida State Prediction & Pick
Bettors looking to wager on Florida-Florida State won’t find much value on the spread. With the number up to -10, it’s too late to side with the sharp money that got in at -7 or better. With the total up to 58, the under has some appeal with a run-heavy game script in play, but Florida’s terrible defense could give up enough points to ruin it.
Instead, bettors can turn to the first half and player prop markets for value. The Seminoles are only favored to win the first half by six points, which they have done in five of their last six games, including their road loss to NC State. The Seminoles rank eighth in points per first half (20.4) and 10th in points allowed per first half (8.4); in contrast, the Gators rank 48th in points per first half (15.2) and 100th in points allowed per first half (16.6).
Anthony Richardson’s player props are also worth a wager. Head coach Billy Napier didn’t use him much as a rusher last week, and Anthony Richardson totaled only four carries for 25 yards. But Richardson has averaged 8.5 rushing attempts and 55.3 rushing yards per game this year, and his lack of viable receiving options could force him to scramble more often. Florida State’s struggles against Cunningham earlier in the year make backing Richardson to get at least 50 rushing yards that much sharper.
Final Florida-Florida State Pick: Florida State First Half -6 (-110 for .55 Unit) at DraftKings
Anthony Richardson Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115 for 1.15 Units) at DraftKings
