Both teams are 4-2, but LSU and Florida don’t look like high-level college football teams.
LSU is fresh off an embarrassing, 40-13 home loss to Tennessee. The Brian Kelly era is off to an ugly start.
Both teams could be undervalued. There are great pieces on both sides, including solid dual-threat quarterbacks. Maybe the Tigers and the Gators just had bad weeks.
Or are both teams just bad? And who do we bet on? Florida is a 2.5-point favorite, but it’s hard to back them as a favorite in this situation.
LSU vs Florida Betting College Football Week 5 Picks & Predictions
LSU Can Run The Ball
It’s shocking to look at LSU’s rush numbers. They’re averaging over 170 rush yards per game at close to 5 YPC. But the Tigers are also eighth in Rush Success Rate and top 20 in Rush EPA per play.
You then realize two things.
First, LSU’s offensive line was far undervalued. Ten guys returned to the line with starting experience and have pushed LSU to top-five nationally in Line Yards.
Second, quarterback Jayden Daniels is responsible for the majority of their rushing success. He’s the team leader in rush yards with 359 at 4.7 YPC. A lot of those yards have come from Daniels scrambling because the offensive line can only run block — the Tigers are 86th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades.
But it is worth mentioning that LSU doesn’t have a dominant No. 1 back but four guys that can step up on any given play. Armoni Goodwin and John Emery Jr. both have over 30 carries this season at over 5.0 YPC. Coach Kelly seems to be going with the back-by-committee approach.
Daniels can’t throw the ball. He hasn’t made many mistakes but has low aDOT and low-efficiency metrics. When the LSU offense gets behind schedule, Daniels has a tough time converting for them.
The defense has been average. They are a bit vulnerable to the run game but have been a good tackling team and surprisingly effective at rushing the passer. They also are at their best when their backs are against the wall (21st in Points Per Opportunity allowed).
LSU’s defensive composition presents an interesting matchup with today’s opponent.
Is Anthony Richardson Overrated?
Florida might be overvaluing quarterback Anthony Richardson. He’s the leader in rush attempts and has thrown for over 1200 yards this season. The offensive line is clearly good and he has a number of dominant running backs.
Yet Richardson keeps giving the ball away, having thrown a whopping seven interceptions this season. The Gators are clearly much better on the ground than through the air, and they are clearly more effective when handing the ball off to Montrell Johnson (8 YPC) or Trevor Etienne (6.7 YPC).
Richardson put together a heroic performance to beat Utah in Week 1, but that win was based on the defense’s last-second interception of Cam Rising. Richardson has been average ever since.
Actually, the entire defense has been average since that big win. Florida lost to Kentucky at home as 6-point favorites. They couldn’t beat Tennessee on the road. And it all came to a head last week.
Without an early pick-six, Florida likely loses outright at home against Missouri. The Gators looked horrendous in a good schedule spot against an inferior opponent. Florida has now fallen outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate allowed, Pass Success Rate allowed, and Havoc created.
There are holes in Billy Napier’s squad that have yet to be addressed, and I don’t think the market has adequately adjusted to that.
LSU vs Florida Betting Pick
The Gators rank outside the top 100 in both EPA per rush allowed and Rush Success Rate allowed. They are still power-rated about the same after pulling off the win against Mizzou but should have been downgraded significantly.
Meanwhile, LSU is one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the nation. I expect them to come off their horrendous loss last week with fire, making this a great bounce-back betting spot.
Remember, LSU still beat Mississippi State and almost beat Florida State. This team is still talented and has a good matchup against an average Florida team.
I’ll take the points with LSU who I think will win this game outright.
Best NCAAF Bet: LSU +2.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook | Play to PK (-110)
