The 3-2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish will host one of their annual rivals, the 1-4 Stanford Cardinal, on Saturday in a battle for the Legends Trophy. This game has been played every year since 1997, and the Irish have won the last three matchups. Saturday will mark the first matchup between the schools when both programs are unranked since 2016.
After starting out the season 0-2, Notre Dame has won three straight and looks to build on that positive momentum as the Irish head toward a difficult back-half of their schedule.
Stanford, on the other hand, sits at 1-4 straight up and against the spread with issues on both sides of the ball. The wind may be completely out of the sails for the Cardinal after succumbing to Oregon State last week in a last-minute hard-luck loss.
The Irish are 16.5-point favorites at home.
Notre Dame vs. Stanford Predictions and Betting Picks
Stanford hasn’t won a matchup against Notre Dame since 2007, but the Cardinal will be looking to end that draught on Saturday as big underdogs on the road in South Bend. This will not be an easy task, however, as Stanford has dropped 11 straight games against FBS competition, a streak that dates back to a 31-24 overtime victory over No. 3 Oregon on Oct. 2, 2021.
After losing starting quarterback Tyler Buchner at the beginning of the season, Notre Dame’s offense has steadily improved under signal-caller Drew Pyne. Coming off his best game of the year last week against BYU, Pyne has the Irish’s offense back to full strength, looking particularly impressive over the past two weeks.
While Stanford suffered an agonizing 28-27 loss to Oregon State last week, Notre Dame turned its game against BYU into a track meet, with the Irish taking gold after outgaining the Cougars 496 yards to 280. Star tight end Michael Mayer was Pyne’s favorite target against in Notre Dame’s 28-20 victory, as the former caught 11 passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns while Pyne threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns on 28 attempts.
Is Notre Dame a Deserving 16.5-point Favorite?
After coming in following Buchner’s injury late in Notre Dame’s shocking home loss to Marshall, Pyne has actually performed quite admirably as the Irish currently rank 27th in Offensive Success Rate and 36th in SP+ offensive ranking. Just looking at the numbers over the past two weeks, it’s clear that this offense is starting to come together. After posting a 99th-percentile Success Rate against North Carolina, the Irish followed that up with a 92nd-percentile Success Rate last week versus BYU. Given the way Notre Dame has played recently, the Irish should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field against a weak Stanford defense.
Speaking of the Cardinal defense, or lack there of, Stanford’s downfall this season has been a direct result of its porous play on that side of the ball. Currently ranking 97th in SP+ and 100th in Defensive Success Rate, Stanford has been particularly bad against the run, ranking 120th in Rushing Success Rate. The Cardinal rank dead last nationally in Defensive Line Yards, a stat defined as an offensive line getting credit for yards gained on the ground. That spells a lot of trouble matched up with a Notre Dame offense that ranks 17th in that same category with a heavy 60% rush rate.
Stanford also ranks 130th out of 131 teams in the country in Defensive Stuff Rate. Long story short, Notre Dame should consistently be untouched in the backfield and the Irish are in a great spot to pick up big chunks of yardage on almost every rushing attempt.
Is Notre Dame’s Defense Legit?
After starting the season with consecutive losses to Ohio State and Marshall, Notre Dame’s defense has really stepped up during its current three-game winning streak. One of the best pass rushes in college football, The Irish average 3.0 sacks per game, the 18th-best mark in the country. Facing a Stanford offensive line that has struggled to protect starting quarterback Tanner McKee, AP preseason All-American edge rusher Isaiah Foskey and the rest of the Notre Dame defensive front is in a great spot to cause havoc the entire game.
While the Irish rank 62nd in Defensive Success Rate, much of their success comes as the 17th-best unit in the country against the pass. Against the run, however, Notre Dame ranks just 119th, and if Stanford can give running back Casey Filkens enough time to get past the line of scrimmage, this could be the mismatch the Cardinal takes advantage of to keep this game within reach.
Stanford vs Notre Dame Prediction
With Notre Dame stabilizing as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 53,5 points, the broad expectation is that the Fighting Irish should easily take care of business and more or less have their way with the Cardinal here. Stanford has to know they will be fighting an uphill battle given the point spread they are up against, but staying within the number and winning the game are two entirely different beasts. While it would be a shocker to see Stanford actually win this game, 16.5 points is too many for the pesky Cardinal, as David Shaw and Co. keeps this game within two scores.
Best NCAAF Bets: Stanford +16.5 (-112, FanDuel)
