Last year’s MAC Champions, the Northern Illinois Huskies, have gotten off to a slow start in 2022. Losses to Tulsa and Vanderbilt give the Huskies a 1-2 record heading into Saturday’s road trip to Lexington. Once there, they’ll meet the No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats. Sportsbooks predict Kentucky to beat Northern Illinois handily, and the Wildcats own a 25.5-to-26.5-point advantage in the college football betting markets.
Led by quarterback Will Levis, Kentucky sits at 3-0 on the year. A big conference win over Florida rocketed the Wildcats up the rankings, and they held serve with a shutout win over Youngstown State in Week 3. Another dominant performance could be in the cards on Saturday.
Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky Predictions and Week 4 Picks
Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky Betting Odds
Down Year for NIU After MAC Win
Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, the losses of last year's leading rusher Jevyon Ducker and leading receiver Trayvon Rudolph have proven too much for the team to bear. Worse, starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi went down with a knee injury against Vanderbilt, and his redshirt freshman replacement struggled in relief. Backup Ethan Hampton finished one scoring drive for Lombardi and later tossed a 70-yard touchdown, but the Huskies punted three times and turned it over three times with him under center. A video from NIU's practice uploaded on Wednesday featured no shots of Lombardi but plenty of Hampton.
With Lombardi's status up in the air and Hampton lacking big-game experience, Northern Illinois may try to lean on the rushing attack. Lead rusher Antario Brown scampered for a 51-yard score last week and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Backup Harrison Waylee is averaging 4.2 yards per carry as well. Still, the Huskies are averaging 99.5 fewer rushing yards per game than they did last year.
NIU's defense has also struggled to get stops. The Huskies have allowed their opponents to convert on 53.8% of their third downs, which ranks seventh-worst in the NCAA. They have also allowed their opponents to convert 66.7% of their fourth downs, which ranks 30th-worst. This includes a game-changing fourth-down touchdown against Vanderbilt. NIU cornerbacks simply lack the size necessary to defend big-bodied boundary receivers, and that weakness was laid bare last weekend. Vanderbilt receiver Will Sheppard caught 10 passes for 171 yards and two scores against them.
Is Kentucky More Than a Basketball School?
The No. 8 Wildcats are a single-digit seed in the AP Poll for the first time since 2007. They have tied the high-water market they hit that season, and no Kentucky team has ranked higher than this one since 1977. Trusting head coach Mark Stoops to elevate this program has worked out for the Wildcats, and he and quarterback Will Levis will look to maintain their momentum -- and their focus -- at home this Saturday. The Wildcats have a trip to No. 16 Ole Miss next on their schedule, but they can't let that distract them from handling the Huskies.
While Levis deserves some praise for Kentucky's success, the Wildcats have truly succeeded as a team. Levis ranks 30th in passing efficiency and has completed a respectable 67% of his passes. Levis' job has been made all the more difficult by the graduation of star wideout Wan'Dale Robinson and the suspension of star running back Chris Rodriguez, who remains ineligible this week. That said, his touchdown to interception ratio of 3-2 leaves something to be desired, and it marks an uptick from the 24-13 ratio he recorded last year.
Kentucky's defense is the true highlight of this roster. After a mediocre Week 1, the defensive front bounced back and shut down Florida's offense, and cornerback Keidron Smith ran back a pick-six. They then shut out Youngstown State in Week 3. The Wildcats are surrendering only 4.3 yards per play, which ranks 17th in the NCAA. They have allowed opponents to convert only 17.5% of their third downs as well, which ranks fourth. If Lombardi can't suit up for NIU, the Wildcat defense should feast against NIU's depleted offense.
Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky Prediction
NIU have kept their cards close to their chest regarding quarterback Rocky Lombardi. This game may come down to whether he can play, and several signs suggest he won't. The practice video hurts, as does head coach Thomas Hammock's implicit admission that he expected worse news after the injury. If Lombardi can't play, redshirt freshman Ethan Hampton could get overwhelmed by the Wildcat defense and the home crowd.
The spread hasn't moved much despite concerns about Lombardi's status, so target this play before anything official about Lombardi comes out and it does. It opened at 25 and now sits between 25.5 and 26.5. Kentucky took care of business against FBS Miami (Ohio) and FCS Youngstown State and won those games by 24 and 31 points, respectively. Look for the Wildcats to do the same against Northern Illinois and win by at least 27.
Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky -25.5 (-112) at FanDuel
