In one of the surprise stories of college football, North Carolina can improve to 4-0 for the first time since 1997, back when Mack Brown was closing his first stint with the Tar Heels. Led by redshirt freshman Drake Maye, North Carolina has one of the most prolific offenses in the country while their defense sits on the other side of the spectrum as one of the worst units in college football.
Notre Dame is coming off it’s first win for coach Marcus Freeman by narrowly escaping California at home after an 0-2 start. After losing to Ohio State in Week 1 and then to Marshall in Week 2, Notre Dame has fallen completely outside the top 25 after starting the year at No. 5 in the AP Top 25 Poll.
After fighting for its life at home against middling Cal to avoid an 0-3 start for the first time since 1997, Notre Dame finds itself as a 2.5 point road underdog after opening the week as a 1 point favorite. Things change quickly in the world of college football, and with North Carolina impressing while also enjoying a bye week last week, it makes sense the masses are on the Tar Heels here as they’ve just looked like the better team. With back-to-back losses against Notre Dame, North Carolina should also have no shortage of motivation in this spot and in order for the Fighting Irish to have any success in this game they will need a much better performance from quarterback Drew Pyne and the rest of its offense.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Predictions and Betting Picks
With an opening line months ago of Notre Dame -6.5 points, the pendulum has certainly swung a bit as Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish are sliding while Mack Brown has his Tar Heels playing at a really high level. While North Carolina’s offense was expected to be good, no one saw Drake Maye becoming one of the top signal callers in all of college football with gaudy statistics all over the board. Averaging 34.9 DraftKings points per game, Maye has thrown for 900 yards to go along with 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Ranking eighth nationally in passing efficiency, Maye has been Heisman-like so far for the Tar Heels and it could be a long day for Notre Dame’s defense.
If there was one word to sum up Notre Dame’s season so far, it would surely be disappointing. The Fighting got blasted in the second half against Ohio State, lost at home to Marshall and then narrowly escaped with a victory against Pac 12 also-ran California. While the Irish’s defense has been rock solid, its offense has been abysmal resulting in below-average offensive metrics in every category, including Rush Success Rate (97th) and Pass Success Rate (100th).
With the Tar Heels sporting one of the worst defenses in the country, however, could this be the get right spot for Pyne and the rest of the Notre Dame offense?
Is North Carolina a Deserving Favorite?
The masses want no part of the Fighting Irish here as 71% of bets on this game are currently on the Tar Heels. North Carolina is about as popular a team will ever be playing public darling Notre Dame and given the starts of the two programs this season, it’s not surprising Marcus Freeman and company are getting little love.
While Notre Dame’s only success in this game is to capitalize on North Carolina’s horrendous defense, it’s just hard to see the Fighting Irish posing much of a threat unless its offensive line can play much better. The conservative Pyne finished his lone start with 150 yards and only three throws of over 15 yards and if the Fighting Irish are to even be in this game the entire offense is going to need to step up with Lorenzo Styles Jr. and Audric Estime helping all world tight end Michael Mayer set the tone early and often.
Losing to Notre Dame in each of the past two seasons, it’s reasonable to expect North Carolina to come out with a little extra pep in its step on Saturday afternoon, and this just sets up as a horrible situation spot for the potentially 1-3 Fighting Irish. The Tar Heels bye week can also not be understated as North Carolina will get two starters back from injury in right tackle Spencer Rolland and three-technique defensive tackle Myles Murphy. Josh Downs – one of the best receivers in the country – has also practiced this week and is expected to make his return after missing the past two contests.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Prediction
At home as a 2.5 point favorite with a total settling in around 55.5 points, North Carolina just seems like the clear side from pretty much every angle. Despite barely surviving against Appalachian State, the Tar Heels have been impressive this season while Notre Dame has really only looked good for one half against Ohio State.
While North Carolina looks like the obvious play on paper right now, there’s a reason Notre Dame is less than a field goal underdog here despite the world being on the Tar Heels. It’s rare to get a chance to bet on Notre Dame with the masses all on the other side but this just doesn’t seem like the spot to do it with North Carolina in such a better situational spot.
Despite those previous two losses against Notre Dame, it is still entirely possible the Tar Heels come out a tad flat after its bye week so looking at Notre Dame in the first half is a decent call. As far as the full game goes, however, UNC ML looks like the play despite how much it pains me to ride the chalk.
Best NCAAF Bets: UNC ML -135
Lean: ND 1H +1
Don’t forget to check out our CFB DFS articles too!
