Welcome to the return of the MAC, as the Buffalo Bulls travel to Ypsilanti to take on the Eastern Michigan Eagles. This may be a mispriced line. The Bulls are 0-3, with three brutal defensive efforts — including a 6-point loss to Holy Cross as 6-point favorites — and yet are only catching 6 against Eastern Michigan on the road.
The Eagles just beat Arizona State outright in Tempe as 20.5-point underdogs. They have one of the best receiving corps in the MAC, if not the nation. But there’s more to look at in this game. Let’s break it down.
Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan Predictions and Week 4 Picks
Buffalo’s Struggles
Buffalo may be the worst early-down team in college football. The Bulls rank 100th in standard downs success rate on offense and 123rd on defense. Yet, despite the level of inefficiency from that perspective, the Bulls have managed more first downs than their opponent in all three games.
Buffalo is outside the top 100 in points per opportunity on offense and defense. They’re averaging just 3.5 points per trip past the opponent’s 40 yet allowing 4.8 points on the opponent’s trips past their own 40.
Finishing drives is the stat most correlated with covering spreads, and Buffalo might struggle to do that moving forward. But past the number of first downs the Bulls have produced — which could be an unreliable indicator of this team — Buffalo has been atrocious, specifically on the defensive end. Buffalo has the third-worst PFF coverage grade in the FBS.
They’ve been roasted against the pass, currently ranking second-to-last in both EPA per play allowed and explosiveness allowed. Anyone can create a big play against Buffalo. That does not bode well against Eastern Michigan on Saturday.
How High Can Eagles Soar?
Eastern Michigan returned a lot of talent. Eight offensive starters return, including their top four receivers and four offensive line starters (two All-MAC players as well). This group is as deep and as loaded as any in the MAC.
The first two weeks didn’t go as planned, specifically a tough loss to Lafayette in Week 2. But the win over Arizona State last week proves just how high these Eagles can soar.
Missouri and Troy transfer quarterback Taylor Powell got hurt last week and was replaced by Austin Smith. Smith only passed eight times but completed four for 60 yards and a touchdown. Smith also added 60 yards rushing.
But surprisingly, the Eagles aerial attack is not the story. Samson Evans ran for 258 yards against Arizona State, now bringing his season total to 366.
Evans put together a marquee performance behind an uber-experienced offensive line. But Evans also created a whopping 141 yards after contact and had nine carries of 10-plus yards and four of 15-plus yards. He was extraordinary.
Buffalo currently ranks 130th in PFF’s tackling grades, which does not bode well against Evans and the Eagles on Saturday.
Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan Pick
This has blowout written all over it. The Eastern Michigan defense is poor, but the Buffalo defense won’t be able to stop a single drive. If Powell plays, the receiving corps will slice up the Buffalo secondary. If Powell doesn’t play, Evans is in for another monster performance.
Eastern Michigan doesn’t have much of a defense, but the Eagles would be better suited for a shootout anyway. And it is better to bet a favorite in a high-scoring game.
This line opened at Eastern Michigan -4 and since has moved to -6.5 across the market. Play the Eagles up to -7.
Best NCAAF Bet: Eastern Michigan -6.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook | Buy to -7 (-110)
