The Texas Longhorns will travel to Jones AT&T Stadium for their Week 4 matchup with the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. Both teams will enter with a 2-1 record.
The Longhorns have arguably the game of the year so far, with their 20-19 loss to Alabama. They covered as huge underdogs despite five-star quarterback Quinn Ewers being sidelined in the first half. Texas has used quarterback Hudson Card since. The Longhorns, with Card under center, put a beatdown on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners last weekend, winning 41-20 after being tied 17-17 at the half.
As for Texas Tech, this won’t be its first rodeo against a top-25 opponent. It lost last week to North Carolina State, which sits No. 12. The Red Raiders blew out Murray State to commence the season and followed that up with a 33-30 overtime win over the Houston Cougars in Week 2. Against the Wolfpack, the Red Raiders defense held strong, allowing just 7 second-half points.
That said, let’s dive into a few themes of this in-state battle.
Texas vs. Texas Tech Predictions and Week 4 Picks
Texas’ Aggressive Defense Is Focal Point of Game
One thing Texas has done extremely well this season is defending. It has allowed just 50 points through three games, an impressive feat in college football. It ranks 42 in points per game and 33rd in opponent points per game, sitting 10th per CFB Reference’s Simple Rating System, which takes point spread margins and strength of opponents into consideration.
After allowing 31.1 points per game, ranking 99th of 130 programs last season, Texas has improved drastically. Former four-star cornerback Ryan Watts transferred in from Ohio State, and Diamonte Dorsey-Tucker from James Madison also was brought in, both strengthening the Longhorns defense.
The biggest difference has been in their run defense, which is where Dorsey-Tucker and many others can take credit. They allowed over 200 yards rushing per game last season, and that has declined sharply to 130.7. Allowing just a 3.6 yards per carry average is also impressive and should help keep the Red Raiders in second- and third-and-long territory.
Of course, running back Bijan Robinson being one of the best running backs in the nation has helped keep Texas’ defense off the field and rested as well. This has been arguably the best development this season for Texas; however, it’ll be the aerial attack that will be tested on Saturday.
For Texas, that shouldn’t be too worrisome either, as it held Heisman winner Bryce Young to just 27 completions and 213 yards on 39 attempts. It will be away from home but will look to bring that same mentality.
Can Texas Tech’s Donovan Smith Limit Turnovers?
Last season, Henry Colombi, now with Marshall, and Donovan Smith shared the quarterback reps, with Colombi playing in seven games and Smith nine. Smith has the starting job now, and it hasn’t been as impressive as the Red Raiders would’ve hoped for. He had seven touchdowns to two interceptions last season and 1,181 yards in those nine games. This season, under a new head coach in Joey McGuire, Smith has been used far more often, throwing for 785 yards in three games.
His turnovers have plagued the team, though, as he has five interceptions to 71 completions. Against North Carolina State, Smith had three interceptions, one of which was taken back for a touchdown, extending the Wolfpack lead to 20-0.
Texas has forced every non-Alabama opponent, Texas-San Antonio and Louisiana-Monroe, into a pick. The Red Raiders average 373 yards through the air to 102 rushing yards, so they’re going to need to make up some ground by passing. If Smith can’t settle in and get by a secondary with Watts and company, it will be a long game for the Red Raiders.
Texas vs. Texas Tech Prediction
Texas is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season, with Texas Tech just 1-2. Texas Tech has shown flaws against tougher opponents, mainly Smith’s passing woes. Without an ability to run the ball, especially against a mighty Texas defensive front, it should find stringing first downs together difficult.
On the other side of the ball, it’ll be the Robinson show, as he had 183 yards rushing against Texas-San Antonio. The Red Raiders defense has played the run well but hasn’t faced a back of Robinson’s caliber. With the spread just a touchdown and the Red Raiders 1-2-1 against the spread as home underdogs, back the Longhorns to take care of business on the road.
Best NCAAF Bet: Texas -7.0 (-107) at PointsBet | Playable to -7.0 (-110)
