MACtion is coming back a little earlier this season, with the Central Michigan Chippewas traveling to Stillwater to battle Mike Gundy’s Cowboys on a Thursday night.
Expect points.
Both Central Michigan and Oklahoma State return very little on the defensive side. Both the Chippewas and Cowboys lost their top four tacklers from 2021 while bringing back just four returning starters. The total opened around 58 and has since been slowly bet up to 60. Some buyback money has come in, pushing the number back below 60 at some books.
The Cowboys opened around a three-touchdown favorite, and the line has been stable. You can shop for the best available odds here.
Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State Week 1 Picks
Defense a Question Mark for the Central Michigan
Central Michigan returns massive foundational pieces on the offense in quarterback Daniel Richardson and backfield menace Lew Nichols. Nichols was dominant last season, rushing for a monstrous 1,895 yards with 16 touchdowns. He finished the year with over 360 snaps and 340 carries; both numbers led FBS. But he was efficient in volume, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and leading the nation in 10-yard runs with 55. He finished second in 15-yard runs with 26 and fumbled just once all season. Nichols was a big reason Central Michigan finished top-35 nationally in explosiveness.
Although, the better explosive metrics came in the passing game, where Richardson completed 25 passes 20-yards downfield. Richardson’s efficiency metrics weren’t absurd – 9.0 adjusted yards per attempt, 75.8 PFF passing grade – but he completed over 60% of passes and had 24 touchdowns to six interceptions and a passer rating over 150.
Richardson did lose two of his top three wideouts, but Jim McElwain will find new guys and the offensive line returns enough. This offense should be fine as long as incoming offensive coordinator Paul Petrino is competent.
The defense is a massive question mark. There are just three returning starters and six of the top eight tacklers are gone, including their top two edge rushers and top two linebackers. The secondary is a mess. There’s so little depth that McElwain converted a wide receiver to mix in with the second-teamers. Given the Central Michigan play a 4-2-5 on defense, this could get ugly.
But the Central Michigan finished last season winning and covering their final five games, ending with a Sun Bowl win over Washington State as touchdown underdogs. McElwain enters his fourth year here after earning MAC Coach of the Year honors in 2019. This is a program on the way up, but there are reasons to be worried.
Spencer Sanders Needs to Step Up
Gundy put together the best season of his career in Stillwater, picking up 12 wins and beating Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl as a short dog. Normal negative regression should come after a season like that. Oklahoma State arguably lost more on the defensive side than Central Michigan did. After allowing just 18 points per game in 2021, just four starters return, with most of the production coming on the defensive line. The defensive line is one of the best in the nation, but the rest of the squad may not hold up.
The linebackers are the biggest question mark. Malcolm Rodriguez, Devin Harper and Tanner McCalister are all gone, and the former two were the Cowboys’ top tacklers in 2021. They replace them with a combination of backups and JUCO transfer Xavier Benson. Plus, Broyles finalist Jim Knowles dipped for Ohio State, leaving former Auburn defensive coordinator/Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason to fill some very large shoes.
Spencer Sanders enters his fourth year under center in Stillwater, and it’s his most important season yet. He’s athletic, rushing for over 650 yards last season and adding six touchdowns, which should be important behind an offensive line that has just 55 career starts. But he can throw away games with the best of them. He tossed seven combined picks in two games against Baylor, including four in the Big 12 championship game, and finished with 14 turnover-worthy plays to just 20 big-time throws. But after the worst game of his career, Sanders responded by going 34-for-51 for 371 yards, four touchdowns and zero turnover-worthy plays in the 37-35 Fiesta Bowl victory. Notre Dame didn’t have Brian Kelly to scheme against him, but it’s still worth mentioning.
Sanders will likely decide the outcome of every spread for Oklahoma State this season. The good Sanders will win and cover games, the bad one will throw them away. Combine the defensive losses with the Knowles departure and the Sanders unknown, and the play is Oklahoma State under 8.5 wins. The Cowboys should win this one, but they won’t cover.
Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State Pick
Central Michigan is 2-0 all-time against the spread against Gundy’s Oklahoma State team. The Chippewas even won outright in 2016, winning 30-27 on a final-play touchdown. If the Central Michigan offensive line can hang on against the Oklahoma State defensive line, then Nichols should shred the Cowboys linebackers. He’ll be able to create in the second level, pick up some more 15-yard runs and keep the ball in Central Michigan’s possession. That’s huge for a three-touchdown underdog.
If the Chippewas do win the possession battle, that may force Sanders to work quicker than the coaching staff would want him to. That could lead to turnovers for a turnover-prone quarterback, and just one interception would make it increasingly unlikely the Cowboys cover this massive spread. Truth be told, this spread should be closer to +18 than +21.5.
Best NCAAF Bet: Central Michigan +21.5 (-110) at FanDuel | Buy to +19.5
