Everybody loves the underdog. Though it’s rare, underdogs eventually have their day, and when they do, the payouts are incredible. Below are the best bets for those who like to fade the favorites and cheer for the upsets at high odds. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/31
Jose Quintana O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The journey for left-hander Jose Quintana has been a wild one over these past two seasons. This is Quintana’s fourth team in the last two years, and he will make his sixth start with the Cardinals tonight in a matchup against the Reds. Quintana and the Cardinals are a -240 favorite as the Reds are only implied for 3.8 runs. Overall, Quintana has pitched very well this season — 3.45 ERA, which is the lowest he has had since 2016.
A 20.1% strikeout rate is nothing to brag about, but this matchup against the Reds should generate strikeouts automatically, as they rank in the top five this season in strikeout rate. In his lone start in this spot earlier this season, Quintana was able to strike out five Reds and allowed only three hits through seven innings. Stokastic projects Quintana for 4.9 strikeouts in this spot, similar to what he did back in June. This prop is the best bet in the Dog Days parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jose Quintana OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Jordan Lyles O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In his first season with the Orioles, Jordan Lyles has become the new ace of the staff. Lyles leads the team in wins, ERA and strikeouts as he has put together a very strong season. Through 26 starts, Lyles has generated four or more strikeouts in 18 of those games. He has a matchup on the road against the hard-hitting Guardians, but Lyles has breezed through this over with ease all season long.
This is his first matchup against the Guardians, who are the hardest team to strike out this season. Over the last two months, Lyles has a 5-2 record through 11 starts and has gone over this 3.5 strikeout prop line in eight of those starts. This is another prop with an xWin rate of 54%, and Stokastic projects Lyles for 3.9 strikeouts. Pitching against the Guardians will be tough, but Lyles’ consistency all season long shows this line as way too low.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jordan Lyles OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Kyle Wright O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Despite losing three games in a row, the Atlanta Braves are still only three games back from the New York Mets in the NL East. Kyle Wright will take the mound for the Braves in a bounce-back situation against a very poor road team in the Colorado Rockies. Max Fried was unable to capitalize in this matchup last night, but Wright, who leads the team in wins with 16, will test his luck and is 12-2 since June.
Wright’s 16 victories and 2.99 ERA are the best in his career by far. Pair that with a 24% strikeout rate, and Wright should roll through a Rockies team that is notoriously awful on the road. Getting to six or more strikeouts may be a stretch, but Wright has averaged 7.5 strikeouts per game in his last two starts, allowing only two earned runs through 13 innings. He has also completed at least six innings in eight straight starts, so longevity is also not an issue here at all.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kyle Wright OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Tyler Anderson O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Dodgers are the first team to 90 wins this season as they continue to make their case for the best team in the league. Pitching for the Dodgers has provided Tyler Anderson a fantastic opportunity to rack up wins, and he has done just that, with a career-best 13-2 record. Not only that, but Anderson has a 2.69 ERA and leads the team in innings.
Pitching deep into games seems to be frowned upon for the Dodgers staff, but Anderson has completed six or more innings in nine of his last 11 starts and completed five in the other two. He simply doesn’t get blown up, which provides more opportunity for him to get this over strikeout prop. A great matchup against the Mets is on deck, and Stokastic projects Anderson for exactly 4.5 strikeouts in this spot for the last leg in the Dog Days parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Tyler Anderson OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)
