Both the Clemson Tigers and Tennessee Volunteers have made quarterback changes ahead of Friday’s Orange Bowl. Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker went down with a season-ending injury against South Carolina. Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei transferred to Oregon State. Clemson is now a narrow favorite in the Orange Bowl odds. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Orange Bowl predictions or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp CFB plays. Here are our Tennessee-Clemson odds and predictions for Friday.
College Football Odds: Tennessee-Clemson Orange Bowl Odds
Tennessee Will Struggle Without Hooker
The Tennessee Volunteers almost had a storybook comeback season. They blew out LSU in Death Valley, took down Alabama in Neyland and kept things close enough against Georgia for a playoff spot to remain on the table. But then Spencer Rattler and the South Carolina Gamecocks dismantled their defense. To make things worse, Hooker got hurt attempting to lead a comeback effort. Tennessee still ended the year at fourth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index, ahead of playoff-bound TCU.
Josh Heupel's fast-paced offense was a cheat code this year. The Volunteers rank second in yards per play (7.1), second in yards per pass attempt (9.8) and 18th in yards per rush attempt (5.2). Unfortunately, replicating that success will prove difficult due to injuries and opt-outs. Although new quarterback Joe Milton averaged 13.3 yards per pass attempt, he threw just 54 passes all season, and most of them came against Vanderbilt. He now won't have two of his top receivers, Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt and big-bodied Cedric Tillman, at his disposal. Those two had combined for 1,684 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns.
Tennessee's defense played well but wasn't the strength of the team, ranking only 37th in the FEI this year. Tennessee is 42nd in yards allowed per play (5.2) and 80th in yards allowed per game (399.5). Competent quarterbacks have cut up the Vols this year, as Tennessee ranks 72nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3). The pass rush, which was 107th in sack rate (4.8%), has since lost linebacker Jeremy Banks. Banks opted out after recording 53 tackles, four passes defended and eight quarterback hurries this year.
Clemson Made a Positive Change at QB
Clemson missed this year's College Football Playoff despite winning the ACC. As some analysts expected, starting quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei held back the offense for most of the year. He couldn't move the ball in Death Valley against South Carolina, which cost the Tigers their first home game since 2016. Uiagalelei also struggled in Clemson's prior loss to Notre Dame. The Tigers ended the season a dismal 18th in the FEI largely because of their 44th-ranked offense.
Although Clemson's offense struggled all season, new quarterback Cade Klubnik should turn things around quickly. Klubnik led the Tigers to a blowout win over North Carolina in the ACC championship game. He completed 83.3% of his passes for 11.6 yards per pass attempt in the blowout win. Klubnik will have the three receivers who led the team in receiving yards this year at his disposal, along with star running back Will Shipley.
Clemson's defense had to carry a stagnant offense at points this year. The Tigers defense ranked 12th in the FEI and fared especially well against the run. Clemson is eighth in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.2) and 44th in average line yards. The Tigers rank 24th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.5) and 36th in sack rate (7.4%), and Clemson's only defensive defections, defensive end Myles Murphy and inside linebacker Trenton Simpson, aren't backbreakers due to the program's deep roster.
Final Orange Bowl Prediction & Pick
Late action has rolled in on Tennessee, but the Volunteers are an easy fade in this spot. Although they may have something with Joe Milton under center and Squirrel Wright at receiver, those two won't turn into Hooker and Hyatt overnight. In contrast, Clemson has actually made a positive change at quarterback. Furthermore, head coach Dabo Swinney is an impressive 12-6 in bowl games.
The Tennessee-Clemson odds could reach the buyback point for sharps soon, so those looking to get action on Clemson should do so quickly. Bettors can head to FanDuel Sportsbook for the best odds on the market. New users can even secure a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000 for any college football game!
Final Orange Bowl Prediction for Tennessee-Clemson: Clemson -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel
