It’s time to head out west, where the Oregon Ducks will try to keep it rolling ahead of a road matchup with the California Golden Bears at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at California Memorial Stadium. In this post, we’ll continue our college football odds coverage by making our Oregon-California prediction and pick.
This week’s matchup shouldn’t prove to be too difficult for the Ducks, who are favored by 17 points and have not lost a game since the opener. But road matchups in conference play can’t ever be overlooked, especially with the Golden Bears desperate to end a three-game skid.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends ahead of Saturday’s matchup.
Oregon-California Prediction And Odds
Oregon opened as a 15-point favorite, but the market didn’t think that was enough. The Ducks, who are ranked No. 8 in the country, are now a 17-point favorite at most sportsbooks. Oregon is 5-2 against the spread so far this season.
According to Pregame.com, 67% of spread tickets are on Oregon via the sportsbook consensus. As for the total, this number has risen from 56 to 59, with 72% of tickets on the over as of Friday morning.
Can Oregon Avoid a Potential Letdown?
As is often the case, situational spots matter and this isn’t the best scenario for the Ducks. Oregon bested UCLA 45-30 last week in its first real test since the season opener and the team has now won six in a row.
While the Ducks should be able to take care of business, this team’s motivation matters when laying this big of a number on the spread. Oregon has won four of its last five games by double-digits, but it has only been this big of a favorite once over that span. The Ducks covered as a 17-point favorite in a 45-27 victory over Stanford.
Having a veteran quarterback helps avoid these potential letdowns and the Ducks certainly have that. Bo Nix is now in the Heisman conversation after finishing with over 300 total yards and five touchdowns in a win over UCLA. For the season, Nix is 153-for-214 for 1,809 passing yards to go along with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions.
With back-to-back road games against California and Colorado on deck, it will be interesting to see if Oregon looks as motivated to take the field while still clinging to hope of reaching the College Football Playoff.
Can the Golden Bears Play Spoiler?
Things are not going well for California under Justin Wilcox during the 2022 season. The Golden Bears are 3-4 and on a three-game skid since defeating Arizona in Week 4. That remains the only Power Five victory for California thus far.
During this recent skid, the Golden Bears have scored a total of 43 points and the offense now ranks 101st in the nation in scoring. If they are going to make things interesting on Saturday, it will be because of their defense, which ranks 43rd in the country by allowing 22.6 points per contest.
California has not allowed more than 31 points in a game this season, which adds an interesting dynamic to this matchup. Oregon has scored at least 40 points in every game since its 49-3 loss to Georgia in the season opener.
Final Oregon-California Prediction
There are many ways to attack this game, at least for those of us willing to bet on a letdown coming from the Ducks.
BetMGM offers a 17.5-point spread for one, which is a bit of an adjustment from Circa’s opening number of 12. FanDuel Sportsbook has a first-half spread of 9.5 as well as a team total of 37.5 for the Ducks, who have cleared this number in six straight games.
Sign me up for all of it. This likely won’t be the best version of the Ducks we see this season, given the situation. I would expect a sluggish start and for Oregon’s offense to be held to its lowest total since Week 1. For the purpose of this preview, however, I will just take the spread because my number for this game is much closer to the opening line.
Best Oregon-California Bet: California +17.5 (-110) on BetMGM
